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| Topic | Politics Containment Topic 268: Hope & Change |
| red sox 777 02/14/20 9:06:14 PM #320: | LordoftheMorons posted... Assuming I'm understanding your setup correctly and exactly half are the slightly heads biased coins and exactly half are the slightly tails biased coins, we can distinguish those two models by using higher moments if we have enough data. In particular, you've slightly reduced the variance of the outcomes (this is obvious if you push the deviation all the way up so half of the coins are guaranteed to be heads and half are guaranteed to be tails; in that case we're guaranteed to get exactly 50 of each). In principle you could continue to look at higher and higher moments to recreate the entire probability In the experiment we don't know that the coins are slightly biased. That is just our model. I think with the results, it is overwhelmingly likely that the coins are extremely biased. But in the same direction as we had predicted a small bias. So our model is wrong and yet more powerfully predictive than it claimed to be. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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