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| Topic | Politics Containment Topic 268: Hope & Change |
| red sox 777 02/14/20 8:07:31 PM #305: | Another thought experiment for LOTM: Suppose I predict 100 coin flips. I predict half the coin flips as having a 51% chance of coming out heads and half the flips as having a 51% chance of coming out tails. 100 coins are flipped and the result I said was more likely is right 100 times out of 100. Do these results suggest my model is worse than if it only predicted 51 coins out of 100 correctly? I don't think so. I think my model was wrong, but the error was that it was actually more powerfully predictive than I gave it credit for. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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