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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 268: Hope & Change
red sox 777 02/14/20 7:57:58 PM #300:	People are misunderstanding this. The Clinton 99% people were obviously wrong. They could have had a great model and a correct prediction based on the information they had, but then their information was lacking. It's like the question, what are the odds of the next card in a pack of cards being a K? You might say 1/13. But what if the previous cards were A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q? Now it's overwhelmingly likely you have an unshuffled pack - and the probability of the next card being K is nearly 100%. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:934389999] in Politics C... [t:78403764]...</cite> <quote>People are misunderstanding this. The Clinton 99% people were obviously wrong. They could have had a great model and a correct prediction based on the information they had, but then their information was lacking. It's like the question, what are the odds of the next card in a pack of cards being a K? You might say 1/13. But what if the previous cards were A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q? Now it's overwhelmingly likely you have an unshuffled pack - and the probability of the next card being K is nearly 100%. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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