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| Topic | Politics Containment Topic 268: Hope & Change |
| red sox 777 02/14/20 7:50:03 PM #298: | To flesh this out a little more, here's a thought experiment. It's late in the evening of election day 2012. 538 has called the first 49 states correctly. The last state to have be called, let's call it Florida for argument, is still outstanding. 538 predicted earlier that Obama has a 60% chance of winning Florida. When Florida is called for Obama, does this increase or decrease your confidence in 538's model? Surely your answer cannot be that it depends on how 538 did in the other states, and if it did really well in the other states, then its favored candidate in Florida winning means the model is less accurate. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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