LogFAQs > #934389503

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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 268: Hope & Change
HeroDelTiempo17 02/14/20 7:45:27 PM #296:	Corrik7 posted... Then is Silver actually more right than the 99% Clinton prediction? What's the point at that point. Maybe Trump winning was really once in a 10p and they were right, and Silver is wrong that it was more likely. Again, we wouldn't know unless we ran 2016 hundreds of more times exactly the same way, but given that 538 models DO have situations we can verify like the 2018 example, you can have a little confidence in their methods. --- DPOblivion was far more determined than me. <cite>HeroDelTiempo17 posted [p:934389503] in Politics C... [t:78403764]...</cite> <quote>Corrik7 posted... </cite> <quote>Then is Silver actually more right than the 99% Clinton prediction? What's the point at that point. Maybe Trump winning was really once in a 10p and they were right, and Silver is wrong that it was more likely.</quote> Again, we wouldn't know unless we ran 2016 hundreds of more times exactly the same way, but given that 538 models DO have situations we can verify like the 2018 example, you can have a little confidence in their methods. --- DPOblivion was far more determined than me.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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