LogFAQs > #934386888

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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 268: Hope & Change
ChaosTonyV4 02/14/20 6:41:25 PM #245:	Corrik7 posted... Because the 1% outcome is basically a sign your model was wrong and that you predicted it so wrong that a very insignificantly possible outcome happened. Like, for example, if he says yadda yadda Bernie will win California. 99.99% Bernie. .01% Trump. Then Trump wins. I don't think the result should be to say "well that only happens one time in ten thousand". It should be "how did I analyze this so wrong to get this so wrong". ChaosTonyV4 posted... Its pointless to determine the chance of something happening, just say if it will! I was joking but this is literally what Corrik wants. --- Phantom Dust. "I'll just wait for time to prove me right again." - Vlado <cite>ChaosTonyV4 posted [p:934386888] in Politics C... [t:78403764]...</cite> <quote>Corrik7 posted... </cite> <quote>Because the 1% outcome is basically a sign your model was wrong and that you predicted it so wrong that a very insignificantly possible outcome happened. Like, for example, if he says yadda yadda Bernie will win California. 99.99% Bernie. .01% Trump. Then Trump wins. I don't think the result should be to say "well that only happens one time in ten thousand". It should be "how did I analyze this so wrong to get this so wrong".</quote> ChaosTonyV4 posted... </cite> <quote>Its pointless to determine the chance of something happening, just say if it will!</quote> I was joking but this is literally what Corrik wants. --- Phantom Dust. "I'll just wait for time to prove me right again." - Vlado</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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