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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 268: Hope & Change
LordoftheMorons 02/14/20 6:02:32 PM #218:	Corrik7 posted... Putting out %s like that as a prognosticator is basically pointless though. Then you can never be wrong then. Like, TheRock says well 538 had the best prediction for the 2018 midterms. Yes, but if they didn't that's okay because they had a % chance for any scenario anyways so it was just the % chance of a time! Can never be wrong. No, you just cant determine if theyre wrong based off of one election. If you analyze a bunch of elections they forecast you can see if their models were likely to be correct. They actually had an article analyzing this at one point with all of their state by state predictions, senate races, etc, and they did pretty well. --- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge! <cite>LordoftheMorons posted [p:934385264] in Politics C... [t:78403764]...</cite> <quote>Corrik7 posted... </cite> <quote>Putting out %s like that as a prognosticator is basically pointless though. Then you can never be wrong then. Like, TheRock says well 538 had the best prediction for the 2018 midterms. Yes, but if they didn't that's okay because they had a % chance for any scenario anyways so it was just the % chance of a time! Can never be wrong.</quote>No, you just cant determine if theyre wrong based off of one election. If you analyze a bunch of elections they forecast you can see if their models were likely to be correct. They actually had an article analyzing this at one point with all of their state by state predictions, senate races, etc, and they did pretty well. --- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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