LogFAQs > #934384859

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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 268: Hope & Change
LordoftheMorons 02/14/20 5:53:12 PM #212:	Interesting: https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1228449705224482817?s=21 This is a thing that makes sense but has adverse effects because the 538 model feeds back into influencing actual opinion at this point. (Not sure how to address this, but its a real problem; in a much bigger and less subtle example, people didnt understand in 2016 that things with a 30% chance of happening often happen, which could very well have depressed turnout from lukewarm potential Clinton voters who thought she was guaranteed to win). --- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge! <cite>LordoftheMorons posted [p:934384859] in Politics C... [t:78403764]...</cite> <quote>Interesting: https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1228449705224482817?s=21 This is a thing that makes sense but has adverse effects because the 538 model feeds back into influencing actual opinion at this point. (Not sure how to address this, but its a real problem; in a much bigger and less subtle example, people didnt understand in 2016 that things with a 30% chance of happening often happen, which could very well have depressed turnout from lukewarm potential Clinton voters who thought she was guaranteed to win). --- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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