LogFAQs > #930756547

Here's my three-day domestic predictions for November 29-December 1, early because of the openers both releasing on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving:

1. $80.1 million Frozen II
2. $20.3 million Knives Out
3. $14.9 million Ford v Ferrari
4. $11.5 million A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. $6.5 million Queen & Slim
6. $6.2 million 21 Bridges
7. $3.9 million Playing with Fire
8. $3.4 million Midway
9. $2.7 million The Good Liar
10. $2.7 million Last Christmas
11. $2.0 million Joker
12. $1.9 million Charlies Angels
13. $1.5 million Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
14. $1.5 million Harriet

Unless Frozen II somehow manages to pull off the kind of hold you'd expect for a normal family movie in this situation, it looks like we'll be seeing a deceptively lackluster end to a very bad November. The three-day Thanksgiving weekend last year was worth $216 million for all movies in play, likely a good $50 million more than we'll see this year.

That's no scratch on Frozen II, which has been doing well domestically and spectacularly elsewhere so far, but a reminder that near-schizophrenic scheduling is no substitute for the 3-4 big and appealing movies that normally stake out a given November. It also puts undue pressure on December to break records in order to avoid a year-on-year decline.
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