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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 250: Hearing Laws
LordoftheMorons 11/26/19 4:41:29 PM #147:	red sox 777 posted... The Emerson poll sampled 153 black voters. That seems big enough to distinguish 8% from 35%. I ran the numbers with an online margin of error calculator, which shows 99.99% confidence that the actual value is within +/- 15% of the polling number. Even at 20% black support, that is basically game over. Also, Trump has actually and consistently tried to reach out to black voters for years. He doubled Mitt's number at the 2016 election. Since then he's achieved a lot of results with the economy and has never talked down to his supporters. Youre assuming that all of the error is statistical, which it isnt (Im certain you could find several other polls which have Trump at single digit black support). Is it possible that other polls are underestimating Trumps black support by a few points, or that Trumps gained a few points? Sure. Is he actually above 20, let alone 30? No way in hell. --- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge! <cite>LordoftheMorons posted [p:930738655] in Politics C... [t:78196160]...</cite> <quote>red sox 777 posted... </cite> <quote>The Emerson poll sampled 153 black voters. That seems big enough to distinguish 8% from 35%. I ran the numbers with an online margin of error calculator, which shows 99.99% confidence that the actual value is within +/- 15% of the polling number. Even at 20% black support, that is basically game over. Also, Trump has actually and consistently tried to reach out to black voters for years. He doubled Mitt's number at the 2016 election. Since then he's achieved a lot of results with the economy and has never talked down to his supporters.</quote>Youre assuming that all of the error is statistical, which it isnt (Im certain you could find several other polls which have Trump at single digit black support). Is it possible that other polls are underestimating Trumps black support by a few points, or that Trumps gained a few points? Sure. Is he actually above 20, let alone 30? No way in hell. --- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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