LogFAQs > #929965453

Okay, more analysis, a little breakfast-and-morning-coffee reading for when y'all wake up.

The age-old question: who wins an Auron/Lightning final

If we just look at the people who hit max (non-DK) saves, Lightning outnumbered Edward 32-20

If we look at those 52 users and also include:
-GMUN
-Steiner
-MetalmindStats
-pjbasis
-SaveEstelle
-barreldragon88
-Bane_Of_Despair
-mnkboy
-Shaduln
-Axl_Rose_85

so assuming 62 users at 10 saves. The above all assumed 10x Auron except for SaveEstelle who goes 10x Lightning. Axl is the only non-finals-saver who is assumed to be a new saver in this scenario based on his posted disdain for Lightning (and Edward).

Based on my assumptions, per final 3 voting patterns and top 15 preference rankings, I've got then even at 26-26.

Lightning (26): BK_Sheikah00, BlueCrystalTear, captaincanadian, Denzokuken, DoomTheGyrados, illuminatusbubu, Inviso, JonPen1416, junk_funk, Leanansidhe, Lopen, Luis_Sera89, MartinFF7, MZero11, Natwaf_akidna, Robazoid, SaveEstelle, Shonen_Bat, swordz9, TexWolf_1729, th3l3fty, The Mana Sword, TomNook, WhiteLens, Xuxon, yellowwolley

Auron (26): Arti, Axl_Rose_85, Bane_Of_Despair, barreldragon88, Drakeryn, ecksgem, GenesisSaga, Great_Paul, GuessMyUserName, guffguy89, KommunistKoala, Maniac64, MetalMindStats, Mewtwo59, mnkboy907, pjbasis, Shaduln, Sockoress, Steiner, StifledSilence, Team Rocket Elite, tennisboy213, TheArkOfTurus, vcharon, VengefulKaelee, VeryInsane

The remaining 10 users are not immediately certain:

BetrayedTangy
Bossman Coolguy
bwburke94
Eddv
FFDragon
Janus5k
Nanis23
PlasmaKappa
PrinceKaro
Underleveled

Strong suspicions on which way some of them would lean but still not sure, for example BetrayedTangy had Lightning ranked higher than Edward in his top 15 rankings but went 10x on Edward so who knows...

In any case, if those users break evenly between the two of them then it comes down to the non-max savers. Lightning has a default +23 non-max advantage in this scenario:
-She had 34 saves from non-max savers and 30 of them would've been the same even in a Lightning/Auron final based on past saving patterns (MWC, Commodore, DoctorBlind, KnightofNee, TotallyNotMI, Whiskey Nick)
-Excluding the names added into the "also include" list, Edward had 8 non-max saves and 7 are safely assumed to go to Auron (Chaeix x2, cyan1001 x5)

So Auron would really need 6 of the 10 "unknowns" to break for him which - all things being equal, including non-max save assumptions - puts things at 330 Lightning, 327 Auron.

So then it would come down to the new variables:
-Having "Auron" in the finale topic title could pull in more casuals, just need one more Axl_Rose-type to make the difference there
-Previous Auron savers who no-saved the finals could show up (eg WiggumFan267, Wedge Antilles, Pokalicious)
-The non-max Lightning savers, seeing a close final, could put in the extra effort to hit their max saves (which could be as many as 30 additional saves among those 6 users)
-Chaeix and cyan could also put in more saves to hit 10x for Auron (at most 13 saves between them)
-Any incorrect assumptions I made on the 26-26 user breakdown...

All of this also assumes nobody puts saves on both Lightning and Auron, which is right there in the rules but I've never seen happen in my two years participating...

So in conclusion: maybe Lightning squeaks it out with more saves from a close match, maybe Auron does with his name pulling in net-new casuals... still far too close to call imo!!!