LogFAQs > #928594682

FD, that would make the swing states the most important ones no? Here are a few options for how to implement it.

Tipping point method - imagine increasing the Clinton vote in every state by the same amount until Clinton wins the Electoral College, and then the tipping point state is the one that puts her over the edge and gets to go first in the primaries. Then we rank the states according to how close they are to the tipping point state.

1. Wisconsin (R+0.77)
2. Pennsylvania (R+0.72)
3. Florida (R+1.20)
4. Michigan (R+0.23)
5. New Hampshire (D+0.37)
6. Minnesota (D+1.52)
7. Arizona (R+3.55)
8. North Carolina (R+3.66)
9. Nevada (D+2.42)
10. Maine (D+2.96)

So, some of the traditional early states - NH, FL, NV, are still prominent here. But Iowa is gone despite being a true swing state (voted Obama twice and then Trump) and South Carolina, one of the most important early states, is gone.

National Popular Vote Method - here, we rank the states based on their closeness to the national popular vote (D+2.1)

1. Nevada (D+2.42)
2. Minnesota (D+1.52)
3. Maine (D+2.96)
4. New Hampshire (D+0.37)
5. Michigan (R+0.23)
6. Colorado (D+4.91)
7. Pennsylvania (R+0.72)
8. Wisconsin (R+0.77)
9. Virginia (D+5.32)
10. Florida (R+1.20)

Once again, NV and NH remain prominent. Florida loses some importance from its current position.
Iowa and SC are still missing from the top 10.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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