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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 225: Pardon Me For My War Crimes Against Good Titles
red sox 777 05/31/19 12:24:47 PM #286:	Lightning Strikes posted... lol the One Nation and liberal Tories have said they won't accept Johnson as PM, Farage is far worse. It would be doom on the party worse than when the Lib Dems went into coalition and got banished to the fringes for almost a decade. Besides, while FPTP is a fickle goddess, the estimates I have seen say LIB-LAB-SNP or LIB-LAB - the Tories get hit the hardest in seats regardless, similar to what happened in 1997. The poll actually has some interesting data, it shows the Brexit Party only winning in Midlands/Wales while the Lib Dems win the South and London, Labour win the North (a lot of Leave voters who prioritise other issues and will never go right in a general election here) and the SNP win Scotland as well. It is entirely possible that Plaid Cymru could win Wales too - YouGov don't show it separately which is annoying. https://i.redd.it/nivwekf03f131.png This map of what it looks like is kind of crazy - really shows the regional discrepancies. Fascinating. I love these maps. What I meant is not a Brexit-Tory coalition though - there are not the votes for that. Farage's path to victory depends on the 18% of voters who said they would vote for the Tories in that poll defecting en masse to the Brexit Party. That would likely turn most of that huge swath of Lib Dem seats across the South light blue - these are mostly seats held by Tories now, that voted Leave (by small margins), so I'm pretty sure what's happening on that map is that major vote splitting between Brexit and Tories are placing Lib Dems in first. Of course as the election approaches, a lot of Labour voters may defect to Lib Dems too, but I think there should be a built-in advantage for Brexit in the FPTP system because the Remain vote was concentrated in London and Scotland. All those London districts voting 75%+ for Remain will create wasted votes from overconcentration in a general election. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg If Tory voters behaved like US Republican voters they would surely fall in line behind Farage, and if Labour voters behaved like US Democratic voters they would not fall in line behind the Lib Dems to nearly the same degree. I think the Tories do have the same ruthlessness and belief that the ends justifies the means as Republicans, but I feel the mother party has lost most of its political acumen. It's hard to imagine Republicans presiding over the trainwreck of the last several years in the UK, which all stems from the Tories' failure to understand why and how FPTP in single-member districts benefits them. The Tories worked hard for centuries to establish FPTP in the UK and its former colonies and appear to have forgotten its benefits. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:922610362] in Politics C... [t:77728181]...</cite> <quote><cite>Lightning Strikes posted...</cite> <quote>lol the One Nation and liberal Tories have said they won't accept Johnson as PM, Farage is far worse. It would be doom on the party worse than when the Lib Dems went into coalition and got banished to the fringes for almost a decade. Besides, while FPTP is a fickle goddess, the estimates I have seen say LIB-LAB-SNP or LIB-LAB - the Tories get hit the hardest in seats regardless, similar to what happened in 1997. The poll actually has some interesting data, it shows the Brexit Party only winning in Midlands/Wales while the Lib Dems win the South and London, Labour win the North (a lot of Leave voters who prioritise other issues and will never go right in a general election here) and the SNP win Scotland as well. It is entirely possible that Plaid Cymru could win Wales too - YouGov don't show it separately which is annoying. https://i.redd.it/nivwekf03f131.png This map of what it looks like is kind of crazy - really shows the regional discrepancies.</quote> Fascinating. I love these maps. What I meant is not a Brexit-Tory coalition though - there are not the votes for that. Farage's path to victory depends on the 18% of voters who said they would vote for the Tories in that poll defecting en masse to the Brexit Party. That would likely turn most of that huge swath of Lib Dem seats across the South light blue - these are mostly seats held by Tories now, that voted Leave (by small margins), so I'm pretty sure what's happening on that map is that major vote splitting between Brexit and Tories are placing Lib Dems in first. Of course as the election approaches, a lot of Labour voters may defect to Lib Dems too, but I think there should be a built-in advantage for Brexit in the FPTP system because the Remain vote was concentrated in London and Scotland. All those London districts voting 75%+ for Remain will create wasted votes from overconcentration in a general election. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg If Tory voters behaved like US Republican voters they would surely fall in line behind Farage, and if Labour voters behaved like US Democratic voters they would not fall in line behind the Lib Dems to nearly the same degree. I think the Tories do have the same ruthlessness and belief that the ends justifies the means as Republicans, but I feel the mother party has lost most of its political acumen. It's hard to imagine Republicans presiding over the trainwreck of the last several years in the UK, which all stems from the Tories' failure to understand why and how FPTP in single-member districts benefits them. The Tories worked hard for centuries to establish FPTP in the UK and its former colonies and appear to have forgotten its benefits. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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