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TopicMovie and Box Office Topic: Prepping for Endgame
MetalmindStats
05/16/19 6:28:58 PM
#84:


My domestic weekend predictions:

1. $46.2 million John Wick: Chapter 3 Parabellum
2. $32.3 million Avengers: Endgame
3. $25.0 million Pokmon Detective Pikachu
4. $9.8 million A Dogs Journey
5. $6.2 million The Sun is Also a Star
6. $5.1 million The Hustle
7. $3.9 million The Intruder
8. $2.9 million Long Shot
9. $2.7 million Poms
10. $1.8 million UglyDolls
11. $1.2 million Breakthrough
12. $1.0 million Tolkien

John Wick 3 is pacing for another big improvement over its predecessor, based on presales at least, while the other two openers are just hoping for scraps. As for holdovers, I think Endgame can finally recover a little thanks to the lesser competition than Infinity War faced in its fourth weekend, while Pikachu is showing all the signs of mediocre enough word of mouth to tank hard this weekend (see also: Dumbo and Shazam, both with distinct similarities in their approaches).

Overall, this weekend's going to inevitably be down a bunch from the same frame last year; with a profitable summer still in the offing, that wouldn't be so bad on its own. It gets worse, however, considering we're still down over 10% from 2018, and further in light of Aladdin pacing weakly over this upcoming weekend. There's two other openers looking to debut as blips, so we're pretty much going to have two down weekends in a row.
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