LogFAQs > #920849017

scarletspeed7 posted...

If the US pulls 300 mil for Detective Pikachu, which I saw as a prediction, 800 is a shoo-in. But I don't k ow how it plays against Avengers.

Currently, the industry's domestic predictions are a $50 million opening weekend from tracking, and $250 million total from Box Office Pro, which does their own long-range forecasts. Some of the people who are particularly high on its potential like to point to fellow nostalgia-harnesser Jurassic World as an example of such sources being totally off, but Jurassic World was a particularly extreme case.

For the reasoning behind my current prediction, there is room to play against Endgame and even the likes of Aladdin, but not a ton of it. In addition, it doesn't seem like the hype (past that first trailer) has extended too much beyond the internet, though that might just be my skewed perspective. International box office should be solid, but I'm actually thinking lower than most people. 300 / 500 sounds about right to me given how Pokmon is a rather weaker brand outside North America and Japan, the latter of which may not take to this Hollywoodized version. A few weeks back, I was thinking it could hit $1 billion, but I don't think the hype has quite built in the way it should have for such a lofty prediction.

Also as far as predictions go, it really depends on which source you're drawing from. Some people have unironically touted as much as $1.5-2 billion as likely, thus my mention of the sheer variability.
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Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!