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Topic	Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 9
MasterMoltar 12/06/18 4:56:53 PM #342:	transiences Analysis By my math, this is the 13th Link vs. Cloud matchup in contest history. 14 if you include that stupid rivalry rumble but fortunately no one does. That contest sucked bad. Cloud won the first matchup and Link is 11-0 since. This honestly hasn't been a 'rivalry' since, oh, 2007 or so. Then again, the two haven't really matched up since 2010 since Cloud lost to a random Pokemon during the great weirdness of 2013. Sometimes crazy contest results make them less memorable because I have absolutely no memory of that happening. There was a weird result every other day towards the end of that goofy contest. Draven didn't kill that contest - Pokemon killing off legends left and right did. I don't mind a good Pokemon result but it can't be every match! Anyway, back to Link and Cloud. There's really only two ways that Link drops this. One is if people are just so sick of Link winning that they mass vote for Cloud, the only guy who's ever truly been able to stand up to the king. Dravens and L-Blocks don't count. The only true contest loss Link ever had was Cloud, and it was back in Bush's first term. The other is if an absolutely monster FF7 remake trailer drops during tonight's Game Awards. I honestly don't even think that would move the needle enough - there's just too much of a gap. You would need a Cloud vs. Sephiroth battle in the Nibelheim fire to even get close. Oh, and I guess Smash 5 technically comes out at the end of this match too. Yeah, you can cross that one off. They'll hide FF7R away until KH3 is out so that fans pay attention to that game. (The actual game to watch out for there is Metroid Prime 4 as Samus's final weapon vs. Mario.) Cloud may have his best start ever tonight as anti-Link sentiment is strong with the early vote this year. It might even counteract Cloud's decades-long awful opening minutes! I kinda feel like Crono and Mega Man is a tossup, while Link put 68% on Pikachu and Cloud put 56% on Crono. There could be some Nintendo overlap there with Pikachu but it would have to be really significant for Cloud to get within a couple of percentage points. I'll give Cloud the benefit of the doubt of keeping it close because it's the classic Link vs. Cloud matchup, but this probably isn't ever in doubt. I think people feel like Cloud is closer to the #5 character right now than #1. transience's prediction: Link with 56.61% Leonharts Analysis There have only been two Character Battles where we havent seen Link vs. Cloud in some form: 2002 and 2013. You know the drill at this point. The gap between the two is probably the biggest its been since the first contest. The only possible difference is that Link might actually be the more anti-voted character of the two at this point. As such, I wouldnt be surprised if Cloud holds up better than most people expect, or Link might just blow him out of the water like how OoT nearly 60/40d FFVII in that bonus poll in 2015. Unfortunately, he cant actually win here, but I am intrigued to see what the final margin looks like. Leonharts Vote: Cloud Strife Leonharts Prediction: Link with 54.54% --- no space all business <cite>MasterMoltar posted [p:913658830] in Character ... [t:77259061]...</cite> <quote>transiences Analysis By my math, this is the 13th Link vs. Cloud matchup in contest history. 14 if you include that stupid rivalry rumble but fortunately no one does. That contest sucked bad. Cloud won the first matchup and Link is 11-0 since. This honestly hasn't been a 'rivalry' since, oh, 2007 or so. Then again, the two haven't really matched up since 2010 since Cloud lost to a random Pokemon during the great weirdness of 2013. Sometimes crazy contest results make them less memorable because I have absolutely no memory of that happening. There was a weird result every other day towards the end of that goofy contest. Draven didn't kill that contest - Pokemon killing off legends left and right did. I don't mind a good Pokemon result but it can't be every match! Anyway, back to Link and Cloud. There's really only two ways that Link drops this. One is if people are just so sick of Link winning that they mass vote for Cloud, the only guy who's ever truly been able to stand up to the king. Dravens and L-Blocks don't count. The only true contest loss Link ever had was Cloud, and it was back in Bush's first term. The other is if an absolutely monster FF7 remake trailer drops during tonight's Game Awards. I honestly don't even think that would move the needle enough - there's just too much of a gap. You would need a Cloud vs. Sephiroth battle in the Nibelheim fire to even get close. Oh, and I guess Smash 5 technically comes out at the end of this match too. Yeah, you can cross that one off. They'll hide FF7R away until KH3 is out so that fans pay attention to that game. (The actual game to watch out for there is Metroid Prime 4 as Samus's final weapon vs. Mario.) Cloud may have his best start ever tonight as anti-Link sentiment is strong with the early vote this year. It might even counteract Cloud's decades-long awful opening minutes! I kinda feel like Crono and Mega Man is a tossup, while Link put 68% on Pikachu and Cloud put 56% on Crono. There could be some Nintendo overlap there with Pikachu but it would have to be really significant for Cloud to get within a couple of percentage points. I'll give Cloud the benefit of the doubt of keeping it close because it's the classic Link vs. Cloud matchup, but this probably isn't ever in doubt. I think people feel like Cloud is closer to the #5 character right now than #1. transience's prediction: Link with 56.61% Leonharts Analysis There have only been two Character Battles where we havent seen Link vs. Cloud in some form: 2002 and 2013. You know the drill at this point. The gap between the two is probably the biggest its been since the first contest. The only possible difference is that Link might actually be the more anti-voted character of the two at this point. As such, I wouldnt be surprised if Cloud holds up better than most people expect, or Link might just blow him out of the water like how OoT nearly 60/40d FFVII in that bonus poll in 2015. Unfortunately, he cant actually win here, but I am intrigued to see what the final margin looks like. Leonharts Vote: Cloud Strife Leonharts Prediction: Link with 54.54% --- no space all business</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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