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Topic	Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1316
charmander6000 12/04/18 5:03:57 PM #36:	Match CXXXVII: (7) Pikachu vs. (8) Mega Man Current Contest Performance Pikachu Defeated Scorpion, 66.41% - 33.59% Defeated Kratos, 63.41% - 36.59% Defeated Yoshi, 54.80% - 45.20% Defeated Zero, 56.56% - 43.44% Defeated Mega Man, 50.11% - 49.89% Lost to Link, 31.59% - 68.41% Mega Man Lost to Pikachu, 49.89% - 50.11% Defeated Ganondorf, 60.03% - 39.97% Analysis Didnt we see this match before? Given how close the match was it wouldnt take too much to flip it. Of course, we could just as easily see Pikachu win by more. So, what are the factors that could change the match? The smallest change is the fact that the characters have swapped positions. While the fact that humans are more likely to pick the top/left option is true, these options are so well known it is unlikely people will just pick randomly. The picture could also be a factor, one character getting a cooler picture could be enough to tip the scales. The largest factor is just plain randomness. Despite getting similar vote totals each day different people do vote and perhaps today they may slightly favour Mega Man. Pikachu also has the benefit of rallying which he used in his previous match, will they return again to vote in the same match? Probably. charmander6000s Bracket: Mega Man > Ganondorf charmander6000s Prediction: Pikachu wins, 50.11% - 49.89% Match CXXXVIII: (5) Crono vs. (4) Bowser Current Contest Performance Crono Defeated Bowser, 54.88% - 45.12% Lost to Cloud Strife, 43.27% - 56.73% Bowser Defeated Gordon Freeman, 77.39% - 22.61% Defeated Charizard, 56.55% - 43.45% Defeated 2B, 58.19% - 41.81% Defeated Kirby, 53.86% - 46.14% Lost to Crono, 45.12% - 54.88% Defeated Alucard, 51.24% - 48.76% Analysis While Pikachu/Mega Man can be overlooked due to how close it was, this match shows the flaw of the losers bracket. Three out of the four matches in this round are rematches and while in sports that could lead to different results in voting situations large changes are unlikely. The gap between Crono and Bowser is just too great for randomness to change the result. If you want to use Cloud/Alucard to predict this match it would suggest Crono would only get 53.07% instead of 54.88%, whether Bowser gets closer to that result remains to be seen. charmander6000s Bracket: Cloud Strife > Bowser charmander6000s Prediction: Crono wins, 54.88% - 45.12% --- CBX - Today's Winners: Solid Snake and Mario <cite>charmander6000 posted [p:913542656] in Contest St... [t:77267563]...</cite> <quote>Match CXXXVII: (7) Pikachu vs. (8) Mega Man Current Contest Performance Pikachu Defeated Scorpion, 66.41% - 33.59% Defeated Kratos, 63.41% - 36.59% Defeated Yoshi, 54.80% - 45.20% Defeated Zero, 56.56% - 43.44% Defeated Mega Man, 50.11% - 49.89% Lost to Link, 31.59% - 68.41% Mega Man Lost to Pikachu, 49.89% - 50.11% Defeated Ganondorf, 60.03% - 39.97% Analysis Didnt we see this match before? Given how close the match was it wouldnt take too much to flip it. Of course, we could just as easily see Pikachu win by more. So, what are the factors that could change the match? The smallest change is the fact that the characters have swapped positions. While the fact that humans are more likely to pick the top/left option is true, these options are so well known it is unlikely people will just pick randomly. The picture could also be a factor, one character getting a cooler picture could be enough to tip the scales. The largest factor is just plain randomness. Despite getting similar vote totals each day different people do vote and perhaps today they may slightly favour Mega Man. Pikachu also has the benefit of rallying which he used in his previous match, will they return again to vote in the same match? Probably. charmander6000s Bracket: Mega Man > Ganondorf charmander6000s Prediction: Pikachu wins, 50.11% - 49.89% Match CXXXVIII: (5) Crono vs. (4) Bowser Current Contest Performance Crono Defeated Bowser, 54.88% - 45.12% Lost to Cloud Strife, 43.27% - 56.73% Bowser Defeated Gordon Freeman, 77.39% - 22.61% Defeated Charizard, 56.55% - 43.45% Defeated 2B, 58.19% - 41.81% Defeated Kirby, 53.86% - 46.14% Lost to Crono, 45.12% - 54.88% Defeated Alucard, 51.24% - 48.76% Analysis While Pikachu/Mega Man can be overlooked due to how close it was, this match shows the flaw of the losers bracket. Three out of the four matches in this round are rematches and while in sports that could lead to different results in voting situations large changes are unlikely. The gap between Crono and Bowser is just too great for randomness to change the result. If you want to use Cloud/Alucard to predict this match it would suggest Crono would only get 53.07% instead of 54.88%, whether Bowser gets closer to that result remains to be seen. charmander6000s Bracket: Cloud Strife > Bowser charmander6000s Prediction: Crono wins, 54.88% - 45.12% --- CBX - Today's Winners: Solid Snake and Mario</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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