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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 88888888888888888888888~
Master Moltar
11/26/18 12:53:58 PM
#28:


transiences Analysis

Hey, it's Mega Man! Some simple extrapolation: X and Luigi are about the same, with X probably being a percent or two better measured through Tifa. Pikachu went under 55% on Yoshi. Luigi's been better than Yoshi for a good while now. Mega Man is better than X. Mega Man should win on strength alone.

But more than that, one result has always stuck with me: in 2005, Yoshi blew up Pac-Man as Mega Man couldn't double Leon Kennedy. That was before we understood that Pac-Man went down hard to well-known characters like Yoshi, and he had just beaten Ocelot. There was some low-key upset buzz there - the Oracle average was 57.76% - and Mega Man went over 10% above expectations, SFFing the crap out of Yoshi to the tune of 68.08%, a full 3.5% higher than Leon. Mega Man is core Nintendo. He would blow up Ganondorf. He would blow up Luigi. He had a miraculous win against the Poketerror in 2013 when Zero was in the same match.

Mega Man just gets shit done vs. lower-tier Nintendo, and while Pikachu's more independent than second tier Mario and Zelda characters, he still can't touch the blue bomber.

transience's prediction: Mega Man with 59.91%

Leonharts Analysis

Ive seen people talk about what a beast Pikachu was during the main bracket, but I was honestly kind of underwhelmed by his performances against Yoshi and Zero. Dont get me wrong. Theyre very good performances that a near elite level character would put up. I just dont think theyre Noble Nine breaking performances. Ive seen people talking up a Pikachu upset here, but I feel pretty good about Mega Man here. He got nearly 49% in a bonus poll against Mewtwo and Pikachu combined in 2013, which I know isnt conclusive evidence of a victory, but I think the rats got an uphill climb here.

Leonharts Vote: Mega Man

Leonharts Prediction: Mega Man with 56.38%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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