LogFAQs > #912634487

Round 4: Division Finals Sephiroth vs. Ryu

transiences Analysis

This match is hard to rationalize. Seph and Ryu both had confusing starts to the last match and recovered fairly nicely, Ryu moreso than Seph. When you factor in results this contest and the totality of contest history, it's awfully hard to bet against Sephiroth. He's always been on a tier that Ryu can't touch. Ryu is our most consistent upper midcarder to elite dude ever, but Sephiroth is a contest god. A weird god, but still a league above anything Ryu could reasonably do.

But in reality, I'm honestly not sure what to expect. I could totally see Seph putting 60% on Ryu, because that's the kind of thing that Sephiroth does, or for Ryu to legit threaten him early and force a comeback after an hour or so en route to getting 47 or 48%. A legit Ryu win would shock me, but given this contest's results it wouldn't be impossible. It feels weird to write that.

Hey, it's the last match before a much needed writing break! Happy Thanksgiving guys, and may your second bracket be better than your first.

transience's prediction: Sephiroth with 54.46%

Leonharts Analysis

Whew, last writeup for a week! Ive seen some people hyping up Ryu > Sephiroth this year, but I never saw it and I still havent seen it. Theyve each put up similar percentages in the mid-60s to low-70s every round so far, but I think Sephiroths opponents have just been better than Ryus this year. Id love to be wrong and see Ryu be the first to beat a Noble Niner 1-on-1 for 24 hours, but I dont think hes up to the task this year. I think Ryu will put up a good fight and maybe even contend for the lead a little bit, but much like when he did the same thing against Sonic in 2004, hell gradually fade as the match goes along.

Leonharts Vote: Ryu

Leonharts Prediction: Sephiroth with 55.54%

Kleenexs Analysis

This could theoretically be a dangerous match for Sephiroth. Ryu is no scrub, and yadda yadda FF7 yadda yadda. But you know what? I think Seph is going to be fine. Hes actually impressed me the past few rounds, and really does recover nicely from that initial board vote. Ryu is stronger than any opponent Seph has faced so far, but none of Ryus performances have really shouted hey Im going to be Sephiroth to me. Hes still not at Sephiroth-level and nothing this contest has led me to believe that he has a real shot. Itll be close, but I expect Sephiroth to walk away from this one without too many scratches.

Kleenexs Prediction: Sephiroth with 55%

Guests Analysis - ctesjbuvf

This match has been talked about a bit pre-contest, but mostly just by people blindly looking to see Sephiroth have fallen a ridiculous amount from before, on the background of... I don't even know. I guested in another Sephiroth match this contest and as I said then, in such a crazy contest 2013 was, Sephiroth beating Kirby and Big Boss as he did was a fine result. He also good against Falcon regardless of what people like to admit.

Since the Cloud/Falcon match in 2010 proved to work fine, so let's use the same logic (funny how similar Cloud's 2010 division and Sephiroth's 2018 division is I guess), because Falcon and Ryu are both probably a little bit stronger. In 2010 Cloud almost doubled Ryu. Sephiroth will probably land about 60-40. I don't think it's unreasonable to think Amaterasu is just really good now.

Sephiroth - 60.96%
Ryu - 39.04%

Crew Consensus: Sephiroth perfects Ryu
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/