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Topic	Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 7
Master Moltar 11/18/18 12:30:56 PM #26:	Round 4: Division Finals Luigi vs. Tifa Lockheart Moltars Analysis Luigi Round 1 - 77.47% vs. Miles Edgeworth Round 2 - 61.63% vs. Frog Round 3 - 69.65% vs. Miles Tails Prower Tifa Round 1 - 73.19% vs. Geno Round 2 - 58.10% vs. Mewtwo Round 3 - 50.18% vs. Mega Man X Man, now this one is just as tough as Tifa/X was to me, and knowing how close that one turned out makes me think Im on to something here. Before the contest, I had X beating both Tifa and Luigi. I actually thought Tifa would be Xs toughest challenge, as I felt she would still hold up pretty well in strength after all these years. Both of them are in that upper near-elite category for me. Luigi though? I counted him out. Between him, Bowser, and Yoshi, I thought of him as the weakest. In terms of near-elites, I thought he was towards the bottom. He had already lost to Tifa way back in 2005. I struggled more with Tifa/X than the winner of that facing Luigi. Well...I think I was wrong about that. Luigi has looked very good this contest. His performances in Round 1 and 3 are self-explanatory, and his number on Frog also looks very good if you think CT is stronger overall (and looking at Magus too, that seems to be the case). After seeing the entire contest play out, Im thinking I was wrong about Luigi. Tifa and X are essentially equals, and do appear to be as strong as I figured they would be. The thing is, in this Nintendo boost year, I think someone thats pure Nintendo and pure Mario like Luigi has the slight edge here. History may repeat itself and Tifa beats Luigi again, but that was close last time, and this environment seems much more friendly to Luigi now. Moltars Bracket: MMX (sad) Moltars Prediction: Luigi 52% transiences Analysis You'd think by round 4 that I'd have a great handle on these two, but I just don't! I'm gonna start with crunching some numbers. Let's start with Luigi. It's hard to know what to do with the Tails match, but if it's legit, he should beat Tifa without too much trouble. Luigi's clearest metric is probably Frog. Frog is probably kinda close to Magus? I guess? Auron extrapolates out to 57% on Magus, and Luigi did 62% on Frog. Tifa's better than Auron by a few percentage points, probably. That makes them seem about equal, but there's a lot of guesswork there. I'm also more likely to give CT characters the benefit of the doubt this year because of its awesome 2015 performance.. but then, Geralt's currently working Auron down to a 53%ish win. Blah! Tifa probably should have lost to MMX. That's not sour grapes or anything, it's just true - the rallying actually pushed the match out of being a great photo finish to being a fairly clear win in the last 30 minutes for Tifa. Match of the contest for sure, but it could have been better than that. Tifa's best clear performance has been the 58% on Mewtwo, which after Bowser's surprise win over Kirby looks pretty good. Then again, I don't trust Kirby. The numbers, they fail me here! Luigi/Tifa is a fairly famous 2005 match, where Tifa put up a Cloud-like performance on Vyse and had us all lose our minds. It was kinda similar to how Zelda looks like Link this year (only Zelda's doing it to former top 15 characters). Anyway, after Vyse, Luigi came along post-Boost, put up 47% on her and brought everyone back down to earth as the Noble Nine lived another year. --- Moltar Status: contest hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ <cite>Master Moltar posted [p:912615887] in Character ... [t:77212735]...</cite> <quote>Round 4: Division Finals Luigi vs. Tifa Lockheart Moltars Analysis Luigi Round 1 - 77.47% vs. Miles Edgeworth Round 2 - 61.63% vs. Frog Round 3 - 69.65% vs. Miles Tails Prower Tifa Round 1 - 73.19% vs. Geno Round 2 - 58.10% vs. Mewtwo Round 3 - 50.18% vs. Mega Man X Man, now this one is just as tough as Tifa/X was to me, and knowing how close that one turned out makes me think Im on to something here. Before the contest, I had X beating both Tifa and Luigi. I actually thought Tifa would be Xs toughest challenge, as I felt she would still hold up pretty well in strength after all these years. Both of them are in that upper near-elite category for me. Luigi though? I counted him out. Between him, Bowser, and Yoshi, I thought of him as the weakest. In terms of near-elites, I thought he was towards the bottom. He had already lost to Tifa way back in 2005. I struggled more with Tifa/X than the winner of that facing Luigi. Well...I think I was wrong about that. Luigi has looked very good this contest. His performances in Round 1 and 3 are self-explanatory, and his number on Frog also looks very good if you think CT is stronger overall (and looking at Magus too, that seems to be the case). After seeing the entire contest play out, Im thinking I was wrong about Luigi. Tifa and X are essentially equals, and do appear to be as strong as I figured they would be. The thing is, in this Nintendo boost year, I think someone thats pure Nintendo and pure Mario like Luigi has the slight edge here. History may repeat itself and Tifa beats Luigi again, but that was close last time, and this environment seems much more friendly to Luigi now. Moltars Bracket: MMX (sad) Moltars Prediction: Luigi 52% transiences Analysis You'd think by round 4 that I'd have a great handle on these two, but I just don't! I'm gonna start with crunching some numbers. Let's start with Luigi. It's hard to know what to do with the Tails match, but if it's legit, he should beat Tifa without too much trouble. Luigi's clearest metric is probably Frog. Frog is probably kinda close to Magus? I guess? Auron extrapolates out to 57% on Magus, and Luigi did 62% on Frog. Tifa's better than Auron by a few percentage points, probably. That makes them seem about equal, but there's a lot of guesswork there. I'm also more likely to give CT characters the benefit of the doubt this year because of its awesome 2015 performance.. but then, Geralt's currently working Auron down to a 53%ish win. Blah! Tifa probably should have lost to MMX. That's not sour grapes or anything, it's just true - the rallying actually pushed the match out of being a great photo finish to being a fairly clear win in the last 30 minutes for Tifa. Match of the contest for sure, but it could have been better than that. Tifa's best clear performance has been the 58% on Mewtwo, which after Bowser's surprise win over Kirby looks pretty good. Then again, I don't trust Kirby. The numbers, they fail me here! Luigi/Tifa is a fairly famous 2005 match, where Tifa put up a Cloud-like performance on Vyse and had us all lose our minds. It was kinda similar to how Zelda looks like Link this year (only Zelda's doing it to former top 15 characters). Anyway, after Vyse, Luigi came along post-Boost, put up 47% on her and brought everyone back down to earth as the Noble Nine lived another year. --- Moltar Status: contest hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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