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| Topic | NFL Discussion Topic - Week 7 |
| Xuxon 10/22/18 11:33:39 PM #181: | going for 2 was actually smart. you don't even need a 40% conversion rate for it to be worth it. but if we do assume a 40% rate (and assume they get two TDs and the Falcons don't score) 39% chance of getting the 2 and the XP to win 1% chance of getting the 2 and missing XP to tie 24% chance of getting the second 2 to tie 36% chance of missing both to lose overall 51.5% chance of winning, assuming they had a half a chance of winning in OT. the chance of missing one of the two XPs was about 5%. so kicking twice gives about a 46% chance (because you can at least go for 2 if you miss the first one). again, assuming half a chance in OT, when in actuality their chances were probably less, and make going for 2 even better. plus you could potentially avoid an injury by avoiding OT. ...but yeah the other stuff was really bad --- ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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