LogFAQs > #910757718

I've been going over some House races in my free time and I think I'm going to just briefly summarize some I find interesting just because I'm bored. (Also if you're looking for candidates to support, these might be some of the ones to look into because they're in competitive districts.

The first is WV-3. The Democratic candidate is Richard Ojeda, who looks like the kind of guy who should be in an advertising broacher about the marines:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Ojeda

This race has no reason being competitive because it is WV-3 and 538 rated it as one of the 20 most conservative district IN THE ENTIRE COUNTRY. Think about the entire country, and then think about the demographics of what the third most district would look like. Theoretically, if Democrats won this district than Republicans should have just a handful of seats in the house, max. It has no business being competitive and 538 reports the district voted for Trump 73-23 and, going by the fundamentals of this year, the Republicans should win it by 24 points.

And yet, the two most recent polls of the race have Ojeda trailing by only 5 (Sienna College/New York Times) and only 2 (Monmouth University of approximately the same time frame). A Monmouth poll in June actually showed Ojeda UP so 2 points down is a bit of a disappointment for him!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/west-virginia/3/

Why? Well, Ojeda is kind of weird. He voted for and endorsed Trump in 2016 (and won his WV state senate seat in a district that went for Trump 78-19). He's more of a populist that tends to focus on economic issues rather than social issues (even though he says that while he's pro life he doesn't want to ban abortions because that would disproportionately affect poor people). WV-3 also appears to have gotten ever so slightly more liberal since 2016, as 538 now has it as the 43rd most Republican district in the entire country (the Cook PVI has it just outside the top 20 still).

Are Republicans scared? Yes. Breitbart has started showing ads demonstrating what an EVIL LIBERAL he is (the guy who voted for Trump, yes) because he later changed his mind after seeing Trump for a while and called his presidency a train wreck.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2018/10/15/exclusive-tv-ads-expose-radical-west-virginia-leftist-richard-ojeda-for-opposition-to-trump/

So will he win? Nah, probably not. 538 is very pessimistic about his chances and is guessing he'll lose by 9-10 points even though all polls have been closer than that. I just think it shows Democrats could compete literally anywhere if they found the right candidates. If they lose this district by 10, there is no reason they couldn't win other presumably conservative districts if they found good candidates that resonate with the population of the district.

I just think its a cool race because you can go down the most conservative districts in the country and they are all safe red, except for this one which is surprisingly only a lead republican.
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Moops?
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