LogFAQs > #910714274

Sorry about the double post, but I'll be doing some additional analysis prior to the contest. This might give us a clue about how well Nintendo characters will do this contest. This is designed for us to take into consideration how much Nintendo characters may boost with the registered votes counting double.
Take this with a grain of salt, however.

The analysis is according to SBAllen's post back in 2013 (on the Board 8 wiki, look up CBIX and it's in Ulti's post-contest analysis). The (%) listed after each match indicates the percentage the winner got against second place (and against 3rd place in a few cases).

The following 2013 matches winners were changed when counting only registered voters:
5149: Jak over Draven (who cares)
5227: Mega Man X over Draven (who cares)
5253: Link over Draven (who cares)
5171: Falcon over Alucard (50%)
5246: Mario over Vivi (50%)
5251: Zelda over Charizard (50%)
5261: Charizard over Mega Man (50%)
5232: Luigi over Big Boss (50.5%)
5220: ?-Block over Rikku (52.5%)
5247: Missingno over Squall (52.5%)
5255: Kirby over Sephiroth (52.98%)

53/47 is the largest gap overcome by registered voters. SBAllen said that about 1/3 of votes are from registered voters in the 2013 contest.

Now, we don't know for sure if there actually WERE any other matches in the first three rounds where registered votes would fliip the results. (hence, take this with a grain of salt) I've decided it's worth looking into close matches where the registered votes did NOT change the winner:

Registered votes in the following matches did NOT change the winner:

Tharja over Tiny Tina (50%)
Pikachu over Sora (50%)
Ike over Proto Man (50%)
Missingno over TIdus (50%)
Shepard over Aeris (51%)
Squirtle over Cloud (51%)
Mr. G&W over Lee Everett (52%)
Nathan Drake over Pac-Man (52%)
Blue over Fox McCloud (52%)
Catherina over Neku (52%)
Urdnot over Cecil (52.5%) and Pit (56%)
L-Block over Auron (52.5%)
Red over Vivi (53.5%) and Squall (59%)
Crash f. over Wheatley (54%)
Kefka beat Zack (54%)
Zidane over Ridley (54%)
Yuna over Master Chief (54%)
DK over Lightning (54%)
Leon Kennedy over Gordon (54%)
Pikachu over Crono (54%)
Weighted Companion Cube over Claptrap (54.5%) and Lenneth (56%)
Mewtwo over Sonic (55%)
Phoenix favored over Marth (55%)
Samus over Tifa (55%)
Elizabeth f. over Poison (56%)
Yoshimitsu over Lu Bu (57%)
Bowser over Sub-Zero (58%) and The Boss (59%)
Squirtle over Dante (58%)
Blue over Nathan (58%)

From here, it doesn't look likely that Square, even old Square, is highly favored of registered voters. (it's too bad we couldn't see What's also notable is that Ridley got 46% on Zidane and Marth got 45% on Phoenix, but did not manage to get the r-vote victory. Also of note is that Fox did NOT get the r-vote victory over Blue, despite it being 52/48. So, Pokemon is not necessarily far behind the rest of Nintendo with r-votes.

I would consider talking about day vs. night matches, but I don't have nearly enough time to look into that. That's another important thing to do when trying to figure out past results.

But wait just a minute! L-Block beat Auron only because of a big rally! What I'm saying is that registered voters actually favored L-Block over Auron!

If you look at ten minutes into the match, Auron had 54.81% on L-Block! Now Auron could have had a good start, though, true. At that point, Auron had 64.17% against Ezio. At the end of the poll Auron had 62.72% on Ezio, though, so extrapolating from that suggests Auron has 53.11% on L-Block at poll's end, if L-Block was constant. Okay, fine. Anyway, this is significant because L-Block is NOT a Nintendo character. L-Block's chances against Kefka look much better.

(I'm not done yet)
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."