LogFAQs > #900045698

Not_an_Owl posted...

Corrik posted...

We are going to find out very soon just how serious North Korea truly is.

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2018/04/19/asia/north-korea-us-forces-korean-peninsula-intl/index.html

I see a couple possibilities here.

1) Trump read the situation correctly and North Korea is now willing to talk because they really, really don't want a U.S. invasion and are now not certain that continuing to push wouldn't result in said invasion.

2) North Korea has achieved the goals of their nuclear program - they have nuclear warheads and the missiles to deliver them to, say, Seoul and Tokyo - and have no further need for it, meaning they're free to throw in "we'll stop testing our missile program" as a bargaining chip.

3) A combination of internal and external factors has put so much pressure on the North Korean leadership that more than anything they just want things to calm down for a few years to help maintain the stability of their regime, and they're willing to give up some foreign policy concessions to get that stability.

Right now I'm leaning towards a combination of 2 and 3, though that's mostly because I have zero trust in Trump's judgment.

Well, I am positive it is not 2 in my opinion. They have never demonstrated a successful test of an icbm with a nuclear warhead on it. They also are talking about completely denuclearizing, which would be destroying any and all of their nuclear warheads and allowing inspectors in.

2 really doesn't make sense.

From what I have gathered from a few sources is that North Korea has been building a lot of new hotels, airports, and tourism things lately. That their economy is not as dire as it once was. They have not been starving for awhile.

That Korea's leader has been slowly paving the way for economic success, and to continue doing so, he needs to have sanctions removed and normalize relations with other countries to help continue this path towards economic boom.

North Korea is not asking for US troops to leave the Korean Peninsula, is offering to completelt denuclearize, and is asking for our guarranteed of protection.

While this can all be bullshit, if it is not I think it points back to their failed tests, that mountain collapsing after their test, and having decided to abandon the program and just declare it a success to the people while moving forward under a new path. They thought nukes could bring the world to recognize them. Trump was willing to call their bluff and was willing to go to war with them. They knew they weren't going to have the time to perfect the nukes, coupled with setbacks, before American intervention happened. So, they are dropping it.

That is assuming it isn't all bullshit which it could be.
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LoL ID = imajericho
XBL GT = Corrik