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Topic	The United States is shut down?
Tropic_Sunset 01/20/18 4:09:57 PM #51:	Sahuagin posted... his claim was that the rate (before this one, because we're attempting to determine whether or not this one is unusual or not in comparison to something else) was 1 per year. Right. I think we agree that this number (which I assume he meant as a facetious exaggeration as otherwise it would be laughably wrong) is outlandish and false. Sahuagin posted... that doesn't make any sense, you subtracted it from the average. you don't subtract it from the average, you don't include it in the average in the first place. think of it as drawing a line on the timeline. you're trying to compare one side of the line to the other, wherever the line might be. it doesn't make any sense to compare two overlapping time intervals. Right, that's kind of my point. If we continue to have more confusion, I can...try...to draw out what I'm saying, but I'm not exactly an artist. So let me try a different way. Let's ignore this current shutdown since I think that's one of our sticking points. We cannot count overlapping time intervals. Do you use the time after the last shutdown? Or the time before? Every data point measured on a timeline will have both; time before the previous point, and time after until the next point. My point is that whether you include this current one (which I am inclined to do since I just think easier that way, personally), or include the one prior to the last one, you will have two. If you use all the time between the current shutdown and the 2013 shutdown, as well as the 2013 shutdown and the 1996 shutdown, you are doing a disservice to the real picture. I realize you said 20 years and the last shutdown before the 2013 one was in 1996 (or technically 95 I guess) but I think that is part of the issue I have with it. You stop the gap just short of where you would need to measure another shutdown. Can you tell me that if the last shutdown was in 1986 rather than 1996 (or 95, whatever), you wouldn't be saying 30 years right now? Do you have a legitimate reason for choosing 20 years, or is that just a roundabout way of including the pre- and post- time periods for a single data point? How about this: instead of choosing odd arbitrary numbers, let's just calculate the average number of shutdowns since 1976, not including this current one. According to NBC: http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2011/04/08/6432513-this-would-be-18th-government-shutdown-in-us-history There's been 17 shutdowns in a 42 year period. That's an average of one every 2.47 years. Granted, I am not sure if these are federal shutdowns, and have not looked into it, but let's assume they are not and go by the wikipedia article that says 7 shutdowns since this time. That's still an average of one every six years. --- "Nostalgia is a hell of a drug." -Magus 10 <cite>Tropic_Sunset posted [p:894444070] in The United... [t:76222584]...</cite> <quote><cite>Sahuagin posted...</cite> <quote>his claim was that the rate (before this one, because we're attempting to determine whether or not this one is unusual or not in comparison to something else) was 1 per year. </quote> Right. I think we agree that this number (which I assume he meant as a facetious exaggeration as otherwise it would be laughably wrong) is outlandish and false. <cite>Sahuagin posted...</cite> <quote>that doesn't make any sense, you subtracted it from the average. you don't subtract it from the average, you don't include it in the average in the first place. think of it as drawing a line on the timeline. you're trying to compare one side of the line to the other, wherever the line might be. it doesn't make any sense to compare two overlapping time intervals.</quote> Right, that's kind of my point. If we continue to have more confusion, I can...try...to draw out what I'm saying, but I'm not exactly an artist. So let me try a different way. Let's ignore this current shutdown since I think that's one of our sticking points. We cannot count overlapping time intervals. Do you use the time after the last shutdown? Or the time before? Every data point measured on a timeline will have both; time before the previous point, and time after until the next point. My point is that whether you include this current one (which I am inclined to do since I just think easier that way, personally), or include the one prior to the last one, you will have two. If you use all the time between the current shutdown and the 2013 shutdown, as well as the 2013 shutdown and the 1996 shutdown, you are doing a disservice to the real picture. I realize you said 20 years and the last shutdown before the 2013 one was in 1996 (or technically 95 I guess) but I think that is part of the issue I have with it. You stop the gap just short of where you would need to measure another shutdown. Can you tell me that if the last shutdown was in 1986 rather than 1996 (or 95, whatever), you wouldn't be saying 30 years right now? Do you have a legitimate reason for choosing 20 years, or is that just a roundabout way of including the pre- and post- time periods for a single data point? How about this: instead of choosing odd arbitrary numbers, let's just calculate the average number of shutdowns since 1976, not including this current one. According to NBC: http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2011/04/08/6432513-this-would-be-18th-government-shutdown-in-us-history There's been 17 shutdowns in a 42 year period. That's an average of one every 2.47 years. Granted, I am not sure if these are federal shutdowns, and have not looked into it, but let's assume they are not and go by the wikipedia article that says 7 shutdowns since this time. That's still an average of one every six years. --- "Nostalgia is a hell of a drug." -Magus 10</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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