LogFAQs > #894441375

Sahuagin posted...

Tropic_Sunset posted...

But then it would've happened once. I just don't understand this hip new lingo.

it's a comparison to what has happened previously versus what has happened now. previously, there was 1 shutdown in over 20 years, and now there's one more.

it doesn't make any sense to say that there are two in the last 20 years, including this one, and now there's one more. that's not a comparison.

Oh, I would have thought you were comparing the shutdowns to his argument. 2 shutdowns in roughly 22 years is still an order of magnitude less frequent than every year.

But let's look at it from a different angle. According to his article (and only his article) there have been 8 shutdowns in the last 38 years (rounding up for the sake of argument and ease of calculation). That's an average of one shutdown every 4.75 years. That's less often than presidential elections. Hardly a yearly event. And that's ignoring every year prior to 1980 where there were no shutdowns.

But if they occurred like clockwork, exactly once every 4.75 years, what would be a more accurate statement?

A) We've had 2 shutdowns in 9.5 years, or
B) Except for right now, we've had one shutdown in 9.5 years?

That's ignoring the fact that the 17 year period is potentially an outlier. There's no reason to go so far in the other direction to disprove a claim that's absurd by it's own proof. Not counting the current shutdown in your calculation of time gives the previous one the benefit of all the time that took place before it and the previous one in 1996, as well as all time after it and this current one.
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"Nostalgia is a hell of a drug."
-Magus 10