LogFAQs > #886521947

Balrog0 posted...

I dunno, until like 9 p.m. on election night everyone was still sure she was gonna win. It's easy to monday morning quarterback (in either direction) especially when something unexpected happens

I'm not saying predictably. I was pretty certain she was going to win as well.

But the issue is that I was underestimating how much of an impact a lot of the ridiculous media coverage was really having an impact.

Darkman124 posted...

i don't think that is quesitonable

her margin of defeat was really narrow

Across the many states in which she lost. I think the point made about the demographics of the swing states, and their relative importance given our electoral college system in this other 538 post is very poignant:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/

Second, demographics gave Trump a big advantage in the Electoral College. Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points, similar to George W. Bush’s margin of victory over John Kerry in 2004, after which Bush claimed to have earned a mandate. But she lost in the biggest popular vote-versus-Electoral College discrepancy since 1876. Although Trump has protested otherwise, this discrepancy does not appear to have been mainly the result of tactical choices made by the campaigns. Instead it reflected demographics: White voters without college degrees, by far Trump’s strongest demographic group, were disproportionately concentrated in swing states, while Clinton’s coalition of minorities and college-educated whites (but with declining turnout among black voters) produced huge gains for her in states such as California and Texas without winning her any additional electoral votes.

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