htaed, do you play Touhou?
Putting together a summation of my thoughts at the moment -- going to have to be quick because guests are coming over.
1. Chris' alignment and the two n1 deaths
- XIII and Ulti were almost certainly both killed by anti-town, because nobody has claimed the kills. It is theoretically possible that Ulti killed XIII, but I seriously doubt it; based on day 1, if Ulti had a vig shot I am pretty sure that I'd be dead.
- So, one of two likely possibilities:
(a) There are multiple anti-town factions that can kill at night. If so, that would tend to clear Chris. I don't buy a dual-kill SK and, in any case, three anti-town factions is probably not happening (probably) (though our beloved host does have a fondness for multifaction setups).
(b) We have a lone scum faction with multiple extra kills (assassin + maybe a jack with a shot). In that case I would be much more suspicious of Chris.
Because of these possibilities, I think it's best to see how things go down tonight before making any kind of move on Chris. I have seen infinite shot vig before, also in an HGR game. Everyone thought he was SK there too.
2. Reviver + doc
I don't like either the reviver claim or the doc claim, and I like them even less together. Reviver/doc in the same game seems unlikely to me. Admittedly, we've seen bg/doc with relative frequency, but reviver/doc is rather more powerful.
(a) re: reviver claim: I'm wary of Vaga because he has pretty much Weskered through this whole game: he posts enough not to be called out for inactivity but nothing he's said has made any lasting impression on me and he's garnered no suspicion. It's also another confirmable. This is seriously weirding me out.
(b) re: doc claim: Eirin as town is still "what" to me. But I'm hesitant to lynch on that basis because I already misapprehended the flavor split once (I would have lynched for an eiki scan back when I thought it was "final bosses") and may be doing so again. Also I was previously leaning town on Raka.
3. Spiral
Pretty sure he's town.
- Suppose, for the sake of argument, that Ulti was Aya, and that he was killed and janitored by the mafia. Suppose also that the mafia have a role that allows them to post whatever they want (including "Bunbunmaru newspaper") in the morning flavor. Even in such a case, scum would most likely have to send in their night actions simultaneously, so they wouldn't learn that Ulti was Aya (i.e., getting the results of their janitoring) until after they had already sent in their flavor thing. It would be too late for a night 1 announcement.
- The only other way I see for Spiral to be scum is if Aya is a scum role, but even with my misgivings about the flavor split I'm not feeling that.
Other than that, the quietness of the day is weirding me out. Owl quickly shot out to a significant lead and then the day stagnated. If Owl were scum then I'd expect more bustle in the topic. And yet he's still my highest scum read after yesterday. Perhaps scum are bussing him at this point? I'm not sure what to think.
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another place and time, without a great divide, and we could be flying deadly high