I think there's a strong case for both of them advancing on RI. Francesca got a bit more screentime this episode - reminded me of Vecepia a tad with the journal, and she had some decent quotes from both episodes. I don't think she got as great of an edit in episode 1 as people believe. It's easy to look at her in comparison to her two alliance mates in Kristina and Phillip and say she looked good - I think everyone did. But we get a lot of discussion with Phillip possibly going to RI and probably losing to Francesca so that's something to consider as well. Why would they show us all that if it wouldn't happen? Survivor doesn't often lead to dead ends with characters that the editors love (such as Phillip).
Matt, on the other hand, looks good based on what we've seen. He's got his religious edit to him that's been manipulated to be placed under the limelight, essentially defining him as a character. He's got the whole 'Rob's pupil' thing going for him, and now he could possibly come back and really get a great story arc. His potential is much more established for the long haul, but there's a good chance it may just be too far out of reach and thus ultimately reduced to mere speculation. We saw Matt praising Rob numerous times throughout, but if he were to be out of the game first - why not show Grant a little instead? Why so much Matt praising Rob? To establish a blindside that ended his game at the hands of Rob? Possibly.
Either way you go, both characters have ground to build upon. I think Matt would be more fun to follow personally, and I think that Francesca really blindsided herself early on with her overlooking redemption island, but regardless, it kinda seems up in the air. I'll see if I can gather more insight from other people that are analyzing the editing this season as well and see what they come up with.
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ziggie ziggie wop wop