(repost) Jeff's Cast Assessment Video:
Pre-Season Analysis:
So here we are with Redemption Island, and unlike Samoa or Nicaragua, almost everyone spoke at least once. Oddly enough, Mike and Grant were the only two not to speak, not including Russell/Rob as they're returners. We received a helluvalot of talking here, so I'm not sure if not hearing from Mike and Grant is good or bad for them. I think it's worth something, no matter how minuscule, and so I'd say it's more bad, as we got to hear from both winners in Tocantins/Nicaragua (and nobody spoke in Samoa).
Sarita - Confident, "should last a while", big threat past merge 1
Matt - Like Fabio, but country, may also have a mask 1
Julie - No "BS", enthusiastic 1
Mike - Strategic player, "could make it far", "has social skills to win" 0
Andrea - All about how she has more going on than meets the eye 1
Phillip - Questionable character 1
Natalie - Young, a wildcard 1
Steve - Enthusiastic, maybe social 1
Ashley - "Good chance of staying around", not dumb or naive 1
David - Smart, cocky 1
Krista - Questionable, bold? "What is she capable of?" 1
Grant - Conflicted on who he may be 0
Francesca - Has a mouth 1
Stephenie - First out 1
Ralph - Likable, hardworker (strong sense that he'll be a Coach-like character) 3
Kristina - Infectious, "will play a tough game", "will make big moves to try to win" 2
Russell - Loyal if you're on his side 0
Rob - He's actually a hero, guys 0
So what are we looking at here?
Despite the notion that this is speculation skimming the outer-edge of an actual edit, I'd probably bet that any of Sarita, Mike, Andrea, Steve, Ashley, Ralph, and Kristina will last. 7/16. It's probable that one or maybe two of them won't, but I'm guessing that these guys are gonna be core for the merge.
I think David not getting so spruced up despite him coming off very cocky and condescending bodes well for him. If we really wanted to see him as a despicable guy, Probst would tell us that in some way. Probst instead slightly vouched for him. Why? I don't know, but it bodes well.
A few characters that came off as one-dimensional were Julie, Phillip, Natalie, Francesca, and Stephenie. 5/16. When Probst hasn't summed up players well, or brought them into multiple lights, they seem to not last.
Matt, David, Krista, and Grant were all question marks to me. I think Krista won't be as important, but there's still potential. Matt getting compared to Fabio is both good/bad. Good because Fabio won, bad because... Fabio won, and repeats don't sound good. It'd be like Fabio winning twice in a row - not very likely. Already spoke about David. Grant is shown to be unknown - Probst wonders who he'll be. This leaves the audience wondering who he'll be as well. What's Grant gonna do? His chances aren't dead, but this isn't exactly a positive summation, and he as well doesn't get a confessional, so that's not helping either.
I also think Ralph will be like a Coach character (not hypocritical like Coach, but still big airtime), and maybe Kristina will be a Holly-esque character. I didn't like how Mike didn't get a confessional, but on the plus side he received a lot of hype. I did like Sarita, Andrea, and Ashley outright, however. Probst wants to see Andrea break the mold that Natalie White began in Samoa - young white blonde in Pharmaceutical Sales who doesn't make a splash, but still gets far. Probst has hope for her, her segment is long and personal, and it shows promise. Sarita was all good, and I as well expect good things from her. Ashley came off strong as well, showing us multiple facets of her character.
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