LogFAQs > #961447485

SunWuKung420 posted...

The virus developed a resistance due to the presence of a vaccine not from the lack of presence

what do you mean by "develop"? the virus will "develop" resistance to anything (anything possible) randomly, it just won't catch without the selection pressure.

using the slotmachine analogy, the virus thriving among unvaccinated populations are pulls on the slot machine arm (each spawning virus is a pull), and the presence of the vaccine is the "winning combination". if the virus is not thriving somewhere, then there are greatly reduced numbers of "plays"; if there is no vaccine then there is no "winning combination", and even if that combination is found it just doesn't take hold.

you need both things for it to work: thriving in one population while also being exposed to the vaccinated. we basically created this perfect situation by vaccinating most but not all of the world.

adjl posted...

62%, and even that's a relatively recent development. For quite a while it was stagnating slightly over 50.

k I was just doing total doses / 2 / pop, but I guess there are a lot of booster shots. ~21% are triple dosed and ~74% are (at least) single dosed. actually the way they word it sure makes it confusing... the actual distribution is:

26% unvaccinated
12% 1 dosed
41% 2 dosed
21% 3 dosed

(I don't know if this takes into account that J&J only needs 1 dose)

(incidentally Johns Hopkins is reporting over 2 trillion doses administered world-wide??? that has to be a mistake right? that's an average of 250 per person world-wide?)

adjl posted...

overall case rates would be lower, resulting in fewer total variants

maybe, but where? the variants are not emerging from USA afaik. they emerged from like India and South Africa or something, and then came to USA.

I think you would really have to block international travel to not end up where we are. even if USA was fully vaxed, things would not be different. there are countries like Isreal that were highly vaccinated almost right away but it doesn't matter if the virus is still running rampant somewhere else and travel is not restricted.

I don't see that it is possible for the world to have been sufficiently vaccinated fast enough to prevent this. this is the inevitable outcome. all we can do is continue trying not to spread it, try to maximize vaccination rates, lockdown if/when the health system starts to reach capacity. unless you have nearly every person in the world cooperating, which cannot happen, there is no ending this.