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Topic | Herd immunity may be unlikely in the US due to vaccine hesitancy |
SamuelLJackdson 05/03/21 6:10:12 PM #13: | solosnake posted... How much do they need for herd immunity? Early on, the target herd immunity threshold was estimated to be about 60 to 70 percent of the population. Most experts, including Dr. Fauci, expected that the United States would be able to reach it once vaccines were available. But as vaccines were developed and distribution ramped up through the winter and into the spring, estimates of the threshold began to rise. That is because the initial calculations were based on the contagiousness of the original version of the virus. The predominant variant now circulating in the United States, called B.1.1.7 and first identified in Britain, is about 60 percent more transmissible. As a result, experts now calculate the herd immunity threshold to be at least 80 percent. If even more contagious variants develop, or if scientists find that immunized people can still transmit the virus, the calculation will have to be revised upward again. I'm not sure if the US ever reaches that 80% threshold. Even with the population who have already had the virus. ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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