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| Topic | Politics Containment Topic 342: Biden: His Time |
| Suprak the Stud 11/10/20 11:59:43 AM #441: | masterplum posted... I think the analysis 538 did was excellent. They explained that biden could withstand a 2016 polling error.... Yeah, again, I can't blame 538. It looks like they'll get 48 of 50 states right and like you said, they put out an entire article like a week before saying "the reason we are confident Biden wins is because he withstands a polling error like 2016". But this is the second straight presdiential election where there has been a polling error like 2016. There might be something to Corrik's theory where a subset of Trump voters straight up refuse to answer polls because they are FAKE NEWS (thus creating a self fulfilling prophecy). But whatever it is this is now the second straight presidential election where the polls are off 3-4% points while in 2018 the polls were nearly perfect. Their house analysis was also wayoff, but go look at any individual house race. Almost no polling, and if there is polling it is usually from a poorly rated company. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/house/indiana/5/ This was supposed to be one of the most competitive house races in the entire country. Five total polls, only one since mid August, and all companies are rated a C or worse. It makes races like this impossible to predict when the polling is so bad. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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