LogFAQs > #946671859

IS EVERYONE READY?!?!

Two hours from now is actually a really important closing time. SC closes at that time (theoretically close senate race but probably now) but, more importantly, Georgia closes at this time (as well as most of Florida). Georgia is important for a couple of reasons. First, it is the state with the smallest democratic lean on 538. How far apart it finishes is going to be important for the rest of the night. Biden wins? Probably relaxing night. Biden loses? Well, how much does he lose by? He is projected to win by 0.9, so any loss there would mean the polls were off by a full point there.

Here are the next closest states for Biden according to 538 and then how far away they were from Georgia (their number minus 0.9 which is the Georgia number):
ME 2 - Biden +1.6 (0.7)
NC - Biden +2.3 (1.4)
Florida - Biden +2.5 (1.6)
Arizona - Biden +2.6 (1.7)
NE 2 - Biden +3.2 (2.3)
Pennsylvania - Biden +4.7 (3.6)

Now, of course, there wouldn't be a uniform polling error between states and one state might be more off than another. But, theoretically, if Biden lost Georgia by 0.1 the night is still fine as there are a bunch of other places he was polling much better he could make up a loss in Georgia. Even if he loses by whole point, the shift isn't big enough for major concern. BUT if he loses by 2.5, it is time to sweat. And if he loses by 3.6 plus TIME TO PANIC.

The other reason Georgia is important is because they've been allowed to process mail in ballots since October 16 and they are quick on counting, so we should have all this information relatively quickly.

So 1 hour 45 minutes, boys. Hold on to your butts.

---

Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."