LogFAQs > #945205380

RaidenGarai posted...

Is there a reason so many people are predicting Kefka to be in the top 5? Celes seems to be the first one safe from VI, but I'm guessing that doesn't mean a lot? Still trying to figure all of this stuff out!

Well at a basic level, Locke seems to be the next one out of the FF6 crew, and Kefka saves will outnumber Celes saves at that point. I feel like FF6 consolidation around Kefka is going to happen based on what I've seen so far, but that is an assumption. As mentioned earlier, he was 3rd two years ago and 4th lats year (due to hinky circumstances).

But Kefka also has a better story and contest history. If the winner this year wasn't him or Squall I'd probably be disappointed (Tifa doesn't enter that equation at all and anyone predicting deep runs for her is missing the thread she's hanging by... though of course I'd take her miracle win over either of them)

andylt posted...

I mean I assume he has some idea of the trends and stuff. I figure there must be some reason he took out Seymour and Cecil and put in Delita and Red or whatever! Like RaidenGarai I too think Kefka looks more vulnerable than Celes or Locke but I assume you folks just know he tends to consolidate more votes later on or something.

Yeah, it is based on my belief of trends that will happen. There were assumptions made before - "made up stuff" if you will - that clearly haven't panned out and user activity in the contest also changes things. You update your assumptions and you know, the passage of time of 63 rounds. Shit happens.

Delita has a good base in place and I'm assuming some upcoming eliminations redirecting support his way. Red is replicating last year's run (which essentially was top 5 if shenanigans didn't happen). Now maybe some people who saved him last year don't this year but I see it being sufficiently intact (with a pickup or two). Came close the other day, though... so close.

I could end up 0/5 but you know, I like the metagame, I like making predictions. I like to think I can see how the winds are blowing in these contests. We'll see what happens. But certainly this is loaded with assumptions and unknowns so yeah, not like this is a scientific model or anything.

Case in point, I have no idea what FBike and burke are thinking so they're not factored into anything I've done, and that's 6 saves between them every time. If they collectively want to drive a character of their choice deeper (other than Edea), they could totally shift the entire game. They can support a character who has no chance and keep them alive past their point of natural death, and then anything's possible.

I... don't believe they're Tifa fans.

TheArkOfTurus posted...

He finished in the top 5 for the last two contests, surely he can make a third.

(I wish Delita had made a third.)

Ah I didn't realize he had two previous top 5 finishes, I thought the meme was FFT never gets that far... I guess it really is just Ramza, huh.