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Topic	Our Covid icu cases are increasing again
abaddon41_80 05/26/20 7:00:05 PM #43:	Ooooooranges posted... Actually most experts believe that is an underestimation. https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-05-14/antibody-study-shows-just-5-of-spaniards-have-contracted-the-coronavirus.html This article states that 90% of infections have gone undetected, meaning only one in every ten infections is used to calculate the denominator in the CFR. I have seen some experts argue that we have only caught one in every 20 infections, or one in every 50. realnifty1 posted... Due to a massive restriction on movement and gathering. While we wouldn't hit 100% infected, it will likely get into the 60-80%. But the 0.3% is just a bunch of guessing and hoping that our testing is poorer than we think. Current closed case death rate is 13% worldwide(17% in the US). But the real point is to put a real number on the abstract. It is too easy for someone to say 'oh it's just 0.3%, that's like one in a million', but when you convert that to real numbers you realize that 0.3% is 1 in 300. The 0.3% is the CDC's estimation, and it is still likely on the high side based on current antibody studies and the fact that anywhere from 30-50% of people who are infected do not show any symptoms. --- I HATE ALEX SMITH <cite>abaddon41_80 posted [p:939749841] in Our Covid ... [t:78719876]...</cite> <quote>Ooooooranges posted... </cite> <quote>Actually most experts believe that is an underestimation. https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-05-14/antibody-study-shows-just-5-of-spaniards-have-contracted-the-coronavirus.html</quote> This article states that 90% of infections have gone undetected, meaning only one in every ten infections is used to calculate the denominator in the CFR. I have seen some experts argue that we have only caught one in every 20 infections, or one in every 50. realnifty1 posted... </cite> <quote>Due to a massive restriction on movement and gathering. While we wouldn't hit 100% infected, it will likely get into the 60-80%. But the 0.3% is just a bunch of guessing and hoping that our testing is poorer than we think. Current closed case death rate is 13% worldwide(17% in the US). But the real point is to put a real number on the abstract. It is too easy for someone to say 'oh it's just 0.3%, that's like one in a million', but when you convert that to real numbers you realize that 0.3% is 1 in 300.</quote> The 0.3% is the CDC's estimation, and it is still likely on the high side based on current antibody studies and the fact that anywhere from 30-50% of people who are infected do not show any symptoms. --- I HATE ALEX SMITH</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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