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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 297: Mnuchin's Oddysee
LordoftheMorons 05/24/20 10:30:05 PM #323:	red13n posted... Btw we get a false equivalence in regards to COVID-19 and the flu, we know now mortality is not as high as feared, but still likely at least 3 to 4 times as deadly as the flu. However, that is a case by case basis, it doesn't take into account how infectious and easily spread the virus is, nor does it take into account our ability to vaccinate and protect ourselves from a flu outbreak. Because it is already 3-4 times as deadly as the flu, but spreads at a rate through our communities that is far higher than the flu, the amount of a danger it is to society is actually far greater than the raw 3-4 times mortality rate. Where are you getting 3-4? Afaik the low end of the estimate is still like 0.5%, and even for the flu 0.1% is only for particularly bad years (it's often lower than that by a factor of 2 or 3 iirc). You can also use NYC to give a lower bound on the COVID death rate of like 0.25%, which is what it would be if everyone in NYC had it, no deaths were missing, and no one else died after like a week ago when I last calculated this. --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ! <cite>LordoftheMorons posted [p:939662518] in Politics C... [t:78702875]...</cite> <quote>red13n posted... </cite> <quote>Btw we get a false equivalence in regards to COVID-19 and the flu, we know now mortality is not as high as feared, but still likely at least 3 to 4 times as deadly as the flu. However, that is a case by case basis, it doesn't take into account how infectious and easily spread the virus is, nor does it take into account our ability to vaccinate and protect ourselves from a flu outbreak. Because it is already 3-4 times as deadly as the flu, but spreads at a rate through our communities that is far higher than the flu, the amount of a danger it is to society is actually far greater than the raw 3-4 times mortality rate.</quote>Where are you getting 3-4? Afaik the low end of the estimate is still like 0.5%, and even for the flu 0.1% is only for particularly bad years (it's often lower than that by a factor of 2 or 3 iirc). You can also use NYC to give a lower bound on the COVID death rate of like 0.25%, which is what it would be if everyone in NYC had it, no deaths were missing, and no one else died after like a week ago when I last calculated this. --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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