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Topic~*Ultimaterializer's Post-Contest Analysis!*~
PostContestUlti
05/19/20 2:56:01 PM
#477:


Division 1 Quarterfinal: (5)Final Fantasy XV vs (4)Hollow Knight

(5)Final Fantasy 15 - 13229 [50.42%]
(4)Hollow Knight - 13008 [49.58%]
Total Votes - 26237
Prediction Percentage - 51.64%

For all the hype that indie games got in this contest, round 2 is where all but one of them fell flat on their face. With that said, Final Fantasy 15 got ''incredibly'' lucky in this contest and was spared a huge embarrassment. Hollow Knight is great and all, but how embarrassing would it have been for main line FF15 had it lost to freaking Hollow Knight?

The reason FF15 got so lucky is because this match happened on April 12th. Final Fantasy 7 Remake released on April 10th. The contest got delayed twice, and FF7R's release date got delayed by a month from when it was initially supposed to come out. It took all those stars aligning at just the right time to get the Final Fantasy series just the right exposure to drag Final Fantasy 15 across the finish line, and even then it almost lost this match. I have zero doubts that FF15 loses fairly easily without the universe aligning in its favor.

When this match started, FF15 had the slimmest of leads, likely due to bracket voting. When that wore off, Hollow Knight came storming back and looked like it was going to put this match away quickly. But its momentum died as quickly as it started, so FF15 was able to close things up fairly quickly. After the match was tied for a couple hours, FF15 started taking off, and most people assumed the match was over right then and there. By now, we all noticed the indie trend of hot starts cooling off quickly, so once Final Fantasy started climbing overnight we all figured it was over.

Not necessarily true, though! Hollow Knight pulled off an incredible fight here thanks to, apparently, being one of the only indie games popular in Europe. I don't know what FF15 did to piss off our friends over the pond, but it wasn't good apparently. Hollow Knight kept this match in the 150-200 range for the entirety of the overnight period. It gave folks hope that a comeback could happen come morning, but it was not to be. FF15 ran away with this match during the morning vote, and built up a 400 vote lead at lunch.

But before this match finally ended, Hollow Knight put up one final act of defiance. It spent the last 8 hours of this match refusing to lose, and though it was never a threat to actually come back and win, FF15's 400 vote lead got chopped all the way down to a 221 vote win. It was as respectable a loss as one could ever have in a contest, and I have zero doubts Hollow Knight wins this match without Final Fantasy 7 Remake coming out two days -- TWO DAYS!! -- before this match. On top of that, FF7R launched on a Friday and this match happened on a Sunday, so there may have even been a small weekend boost.

Final Fantasy 15 had all those direct lucky advantages, and needed all of them to win this match. Just pretend FF7R comes out on March 3rd like it was supposed to. How much does Hollow Knight win this match by? 500 votes? Maybe more? Or just pretend this contest isn't delayed twice and this match happens three weeks prior. Hollow Knight probably wins.

Those are the breaks though, and only one stat ever matters in sports. Scoreboard. For all that luck and all that effort in winning this match, this was Final Fantasy 15's reward.

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/p5WImZGPAFg/maxresdefault.jpg

Have fun, bro.

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