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Topic~*Ultimaterializer's Post-Contest Analysis!*~
PostContestUlti
05/16/20 10:09:24 PM
#249:


Division 4 Round 1: (4)Red Dead Redemption vs (13)Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective

(4)Red Dead Redemption - 19051 [78.87%]
(13)Ghost Trick - 5105 [21.13%]
Total Votes - 24156
Prediction Percentage - 94.77%

Some indie games looked okay this contest. Most did not. Ghost Trick was one of the many, many games that served as mere filler for the early rounds. This is why we had a series cap of two, huh? So we could have even more blowouts than usual?

RDR's blowout here was almost identical to what Persona 4 was doing to FTL. I mentioned this during the Persona 4 round one writeup, but I feel that Baba v FTL v Ghost Trick was a flawed conversation. You can't order these games in a vacuum, because GTA as a series comes with built-in negative strength. GTA5 was clearly screwed after round 1.

What was ''very'' interesting however was the incoming Persona 4 Golden vs RDR in round 2. Both games scored identical blowouts against new competition. Both games were really close in the stats in 2015. It was clear that "Persona 4 Golden" might as well have been "Persona 4" in this contest, so it's fair to bring this one up...

Persona 4 (2015g) VS Red Dead Redemption (2015g)

Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16.
Red Dead Redemption has a strength of 24.60.

Persona 4 wins with 51.11% of the vote!
A win of 1,355 with 60,875 total votes cast.

Some of the best matches in contest history are the ones where you ''know'' it will be good in advance, and all the tools were in place for that one to make some magic. On top of that, it was also clear that the winner was the favorite in round 3. Unknown winner, high stakes? Sign me up!

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