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| Topic | If you rolled a 6-sided dice, 6 times, what is the % chance of getting a 6? |
| streamofthesky 12/20/19 3:55:31 PM #32: | adjl posted... That is the chance of rolling a 6 on the Nth roll. That's not what he's asking. He's asking the chance of rolling one 6 in N rolls, which very much is not 1/6 unless N=1. The Gambler's Fallacy is a matter of thinking that the next roll is more likely to be 6 because the last five rolls haven't been, not a matter of thinking that you're more likely to see at least one 6 in 100 rolls than in 1 roll. Sorry to be pedantic, but he's asking for the probability of at least one 6 in N rolls. Figuring out the probability of exactly one 6 (no more, no less) is a different question w/ a different answer, IIRC involving a Combination function/equation. The 1 - (5/6)^n equation includes the probability of every result that has one or more 6's in the resulting rolls (one 6, two 6's, three 6's, etc...) ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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