Im not expecting a second-weekend drop comparable to Jack Reacher (-10.6%) or Book of Secrets (-20%), but I wont be shocked if its closer to Force Awakens or Return of the King than Rogue One or Desolation of Smaug. Whether you think Aquaman is a dynamite IMAX-friendly entertainment, merely better than Justice League or Suicide Squad (or worth it just to ogle Momoa and/or Heard), it is positioned as the official fantasy adventure event movie of the season, the closest thing we have this season to Star Wars, Avatar or Middle Earth adventure (it even briefly turns into National Treasure in its second act). With Mary Poppins Returns safely dispatched via an ill-advised move to December 19 (Disney really should have kept that Christmas Day opening), itll have three weeks of calm seas before M. Night Shyamalans Glass.
By tonight or early tomorrow, itll pass Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald ($611 million on a $200m budget) to become Warner Bros. biggest global grosser of 2018. At this point, it is almost certain to go the distance to challenge the likes of Wonder Woman ($821m), Venom ($860m) or Batman v Superman ($873m) is an open question. It just got an extension in China until February 6, 2019, but its not like Venom has been rolling in newly-acquired Chinese box office after its respective extension. Aquaman has now earned $246m in China, passing Avengers: Age of Ultron ($240m in 2015) and sitting behind Venom ($260m) and Avengers: Infinity War ($360m) among all Hollywood superhero flicks.
The big question is whether or not Aquaman makes it to $1 billion worldwide. No, thats not the bar for success, but as long as it keeps playing like Desolation of Smaug and Battle of the Five Armies, its a distinct possibility. They earned (respectively) $258 million domestic from a $73m debut weekend (3.53x) in 2013 and $250m domestic from an $89m Wed-Sun debut in 2014. They both earned $700m overseas with Hobbit 2 earned $75m in China and Hobbit 3 earning $121m in China. Its not beyond reason that Aquaman, which again is being embraced as this years year-end super-duper fantasy flick, pulls domestic and overseas numbers just over/under the Hobbit movies and then uses that obscene China gross to get over the finish line. Again, its not the bar for success, but its no longer implausible.
Aquaman has now earned $473 million overseas as of yesterday. That puts it past The Dark Knight ($469.7m in 2008, sans China and in 2-D) and behind only Batman v Superman ($543m in 2016) and The Dark Knight Rises ($636.8m in 2012 in 2-D) among all DC Comics adaptations. Whether or not it matches/tops the $1.004 billion gross of The Dark Knight or the $1.085b gross of The Dark Knight Rises, its probably going to end up as the biggest overseas grosser ever in DC Comics history. If it tops $650m overseas (which it probably will), itll pass Black Panther ($646m) to be the biggest DC or Marvel superhero flick in foreign grosses behind Captain America: Civil War ($745m), Iron Man 3 ($806m), Avengers ($896m), Avengers: Age of Ultron ($946m) and Avengers: Infinity War ($1.37b).