LogFAQs > #913927233

I think the most defining things about US foreign relationships post-trump (regardless of if 2020 or 2024) will actually be based on what happens in other nations. China's government and policies will heavily influence the shape of East Asian politics and potentially African and Oceanian politics as well. Likewise, the EU, England, and how that all ends up playing out will drastically change the relationship regardless of what Trump does.

With China, it's expansionist policies are going to do little more than drive a wedge between it and the U.S. Combined with its effective attitude of 'Screw the Rules I'm China' make it so that basically nothing Trump does short of going down on Xi will make China and the U.S. 'friends'. It's posing a threat to the territorial waters of multiple nations in the east and even some threats on sovereignty. While it likely won't come to open war China will gladly act like it. I suspect that, post-Trump, the Asian areas will be split between a Pro-US faction and a series of China puppet-nations and claims. Russia will be a big player here and it's unclear where they'll fall as there are good reasons to aid either side as well as stay neutral. Assuming Trump stays his current course I suspect that India, Japan, and South Korea will all be pro-US with the Phillipians, Vietnam, Australia, and New Zealand having more favorable opinions assuming China also doesn't back down. North Korea won't become pro-US but their relationship may improve enough to the point where they'll stay out of any war between America and China. For Russia, China has made movements to claim Russian territory (using the same strategy they used in Ukraine no less) but seems to be avoiding actively antagonizing them as well. Neither are really good friends with the US so they may ally, or Russia may ally with the U.S. to secure their borders from Chinese influences, or play it neutral and hope the bickering doesn't flow over into their lands (which it likely will if the trade war becomes actual war).

In Europe it's pretty much going to all come down to the question of what happens to the EU. If it holds up and keeps the same philosophies it's had I suspect we'll see western europe cool to the US while eastern europe warms up. However, if it breaks and goes into a wave of nationalism sort of like what we're seeing in France right now we'll see a massive reform after which... who knows? China will be trying to spread its influence into Europe as well and, while it may succeed if no one does anything, it likely won't happen until after 2024 that we'll see definative results one way or the other aside from in a few of the poorer/lesser nations.

So, simply put... I think the state of U.S. foreign relations post-trump will largely be independent of Trump and his actions and more dependent on China. I suspect that his greatest impact will not be anything he actually does but, rather, as a rallying point for nationalism over globalism. So long as he keeps America in good shape he'll be able to perform that role. So...

It's really too volatile right now to say.
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I am the gentle hand who heals, the happy smile who shields, and the foot that will kick your ***! - White Mage