LogFAQs > #913319315

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Topic	Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1313
charmander6000 11/30/18 4:53:10 PM #237:	Match CXXIX: (4) Ganondorf vs. (8) Mega Man Current Contest Performance Ganondorf Defeated Neku Sakuraba, 78.60% - 21.40% Defeated Chun-Li, 58.91% - 41.09% Defeated Dante, 56.40% - 43.60% Defeated Vivi, 51.96% - 48.04% Lost to Link, 20.36% - 79.64% Mega Man Lost to Pikachu, 49.89% - 50.11% Analysis While I expected to see this match a little later in the contest, it was a struggle to choose between these two characters. A decent boost from Breath of the Wild would have placed Ganondorf within striking distance on Mega Man. After watching these two characters perform, I still think the chance for the upset is still here. I give full props to Pikachu for winning his match, but at the same time he did get 56% against Zero which I see is comparable to what Ganondorf got against Dante. While some people may look at the performance against Vivi and think both Mega Man and Pikachu should be able to do better, I remind you that this Vivi is a lot stronger than what we have seen. He easily dispatched a Donkey Kong that easily rocked his four-pack which included Tidus and Leon Kennedy. While Zelda has a bigger reason to boost from Breath of the Wild, I doubt Ganondorf would get nothing. Regardless, I suspect this match will be close, which will then set up another close encounter with Pikachu in the following round. charmander6000s Bracket: Ganondorf > Yoshi charmander6000s Prediction: Ganondorf wins, 50.36% - 49.64% Match CXXX: (3) Alucard vs. (4) Bowser Current Contest Performance Alucard Defeated Princess Peach, 56.81% - 43.19% Defeated Yuna, 59.62% - 40.38% Defeated Kefka, 59.44% - 40.56% Defeated Pokemon Trainer Red, 53.81% - 46.19% Lost to Cloud Strife, 39.60% - 60.40% Bowser Defeated Gordon Freeman, 77.39% - 22.61% Defeated Charizard, 56.55% - 43.45% Defeated 2B, 58.19% - 41.81% Defeated Kirby, 53.86% - 46.14% Lost to Crono, 45.12% - 54.88% Analysis On paper this should be an easy victory for Bowser, but I feel Alucard will make things quite difficult. Its quite clear that he has boosted since the last we have saw him, even against a weaker Cloud almost breaking 40% is quite impressive. If we hold Sora constant from 2010 this match would be quite the nail-biter. Of course, it is more likely that Sora is a bit weaker now while Bowser also has reason to be slightly stronger. One of the downsides of the losers bracket is that it spoils the match for the championship bracket. If the match ends in a nail-biter or a blowout for one character we can pretty much deduce who wins between Cloud and Crono. If we were to make Cloud and Crono equals then Bowser would get 56.12% against Alucard, any massive deviation from that number will likely seal the victory for one of those characters. charmander6000s Bracket: Bowser > Big Boss charmander6000s Prediction: Bowser wins, 53.79% - 46.21% --- CBX - Today's Winners: Samus and Mario <cite>charmander6000 posted [p:913319315] in Contest St... [t:77252587]...</cite> <quote>Match CXXIX: (4) Ganondorf vs. (8) Mega Man Current Contest Performance Ganondorf Defeated Neku Sakuraba, 78.60% - 21.40% Defeated Chun-Li, 58.91% - 41.09% Defeated Dante, 56.40% - 43.60% Defeated Vivi, 51.96% - 48.04% Lost to Link, 20.36% - 79.64% Mega Man Lost to Pikachu, 49.89% - 50.11% Analysis While I expected to see this match a little later in the contest, it was a struggle to choose between these two characters. A decent boost from Breath of the Wild would have placed Ganondorf within striking distance on Mega Man. After watching these two characters perform, I still think the chance for the upset is still here. I give full props to Pikachu for winning his match, but at the same time he did get 56% against Zero which I see is comparable to what Ganondorf got against Dante. While some people may look at the performance against Vivi and think both Mega Man and Pikachu should be able to do better, I remind you that this Vivi is a lot stronger than what we have seen. He easily dispatched a Donkey Kong that easily rocked his four-pack which included Tidus and Leon Kennedy. While Zelda has a bigger reason to boost from Breath of the Wild, I doubt Ganondorf would get nothing. Regardless, I suspect this match will be close, which will then set up another close encounter with Pikachu in the following round. charmander6000s Bracket: Ganondorf > Yoshi charmander6000s Prediction: Ganondorf wins, 50.36% - 49.64% Match CXXX: (3) Alucard vs. (4) Bowser Current Contest Performance Alucard Defeated Princess Peach, 56.81% - 43.19% Defeated Yuna, 59.62% - 40.38% Defeated Kefka, 59.44% - 40.56% Defeated Pokemon Trainer Red, 53.81% - 46.19% Lost to Cloud Strife, 39.60% - 60.40% Bowser Defeated Gordon Freeman, 77.39% - 22.61% Defeated Charizard, 56.55% - 43.45% Defeated 2B, 58.19% - 41.81% Defeated Kirby, 53.86% - 46.14% Lost to Crono, 45.12% - 54.88% Analysis On paper this should be an easy victory for Bowser, but I feel Alucard will make things quite difficult. Its quite clear that he has boosted since the last we have saw him, even against a weaker Cloud almost breaking 40% is quite impressive. If we hold Sora constant from 2010 this match would be quite the nail-biter. Of course, it is more likely that Sora is a bit weaker now while Bowser also has reason to be slightly stronger. One of the downsides of the losers bracket is that it spoils the match for the championship bracket. If the match ends in a nail-biter or a blowout for one character we can pretty much deduce who wins between Cloud and Crono. If we were to make Cloud and Crono equals then Bowser would get 56.12% against Alucard, any massive deviation from that number will likely seal the victory for one of those characters. charmander6000s Bracket: Bowser > Big Boss charmander6000s Prediction: Bowser wins, 53.79% - 46.21% --- CBX - Today's Winners: Samus and Mario</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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