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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 208 is Canceled Due to Rain
Eddv 11/23/18 2:22:12 PM #331:	xp1337 posted... Also, a retrospective on 538's models: 538 Projection: House: D+39 Senate: R+1 (rounded from 0.5) Governor: D+8 Reality: House: D+39 (with CA-21 still outstanding. Narrow R lead, but as provisionals have been coming in the Democrat has cut the lead. But they aren't going to continue counting this week so boo. Would be a D gain if the Democrat wins) Senate: R+2 Governor: D+7 So basically, 538's model was a Florida away from being perfect. (And possibly even underestimating the House slightly if CA-21 goes blue to bring the number to 40 pickups.) For instance this was Harry Entens to do projection. He got the Senate but missed the house by 10 seats Final forecast House median: Democrats 227, GOP 208. Final forecast House average: Democrats 229, GOP 206. Final forecast Senate: GOP 52, Dem 48. Margin of error wide enough for a GOP House or Dem Senate. https://t.co/uC06Sit4PM --- Board 8's Voice of Reason https://imgur.com/chXIw06 <cite>Eddv posted [p:912907455] in Politics C... [t:77200372]...</cite> <quote><cite>xp1337 posted...</cite> <quote>Also, a retrospective on 538's models: 538 Projection: House: D+39 Senate: R+1 (rounded from 0.5) Governor: D+8 Reality: House: D+39 (with CA-21 still outstanding. Narrow R lead, but as provisionals have been coming in the Democrat has cut the lead. But they aren't going to continue counting this week so boo. Would be a D gain if the Democrat wins) Senate: R+2 Governor: D+7 So basically, 538's model was a Florida away from being perfect. (And possibly even underestimating the House slightly if CA-21 goes blue to bring the number to 40 pickups.)</quote> For instance this was Harry Entens to do projection. He got the Senate but missed the house by 10 seats Final forecast House median: Democrats 227, GOP 208. Final forecast House average: Democrats 229, GOP 206. Final forecast Senate: GOP 52, Dem 48. Margin of error wide enough for a GOP House or Dem Senate. https://t.co/uC06Sit4PM --- Board 8's Voice of Reason https://imgur.com/chXIw06</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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