House: D+39 Senate: R+1 (rounded from 0.5) Governor: D+8
Reality:
House: D+39 (with CA-21 still outstanding. Narrow R lead, but as provisionals have been coming in the Democrat has cut the lead. But they aren't going to continue counting this week so boo. Would be a D gain if the Democrat wins) Senate: R+2 Governor: D+7
So basically, 538's model was a Florida away from being perfect. (And possibly even underestimating the House slightly if CA-21 goes blue to bring the number to 40 pickups.)
That house prediction is bonkers. Like, absolutely outstanding. This was their first year doing it so I thought they'd need some time perfecting it. It is crazy how perfect they were on just about everything.
And yet I still see people on the Right talking about how the Leftwing Media got it wrong. ---
Phantom Dust. "I'll just wait for time to prove me right again." - Vlado