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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 208 is Canceled Due to Rain
red sox 777 11/21/18 11:36:30 PM #309:	xp1337 posted... Also, a retrospective on 538's models: 538 Projection: House: D+39 Senate: R+1 (rounded from 0.5) Governor: D+8 Reality: House: D+39 (with CA-21 still outstanding. Narrow R lead, but as provisionals have been coming in the Democrat has cut the lead. But they aren't going to continue counting this week so boo. Would be a D gain if the Democrat wins) Senate: R+2 Governor: D+7 So basically, 538's model was a Florida away from being perfect. (And possibly even underestimating the House slightly if CA-21 goes blue to bring the number to 40 pickups.) Wow. About as perfect as their 2012 predictions. A hint to predictors of future elections - think about what you know that you think 538's model doesn't know. If you don't have anything it doesn't know, you don't have anything really to add that would make your prediction better. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:912831251] in Politics C... [t:77200372]...</cite> <quote><cite>xp1337 posted...</cite> <quote>Also, a retrospective on 538's models: 538 Projection: House: D+39 Senate: R+1 (rounded from 0.5) Governor: D+8 Reality: House: D+39 (with CA-21 still outstanding. Narrow R lead, but as provisionals have been coming in the Democrat has cut the lead. But they aren't going to continue counting this week so boo. Would be a D gain if the Democrat wins) Senate: R+2 Governor: D+7 So basically, 538's model was a Florida away from being perfect. (And possibly even underestimating the House slightly if CA-21 goes blue to bring the number to 40 pickups.)</quote> Wow. About as perfect as their 2012 predictions. A hint to predictors of future elections - think about what you know that you think 538's model doesn't know. If you don't have anything it doesn't know, you don't have anything really to add that would make your prediction better. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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