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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5
MasterMoltar
11/09/18 2:38:08 PM
#171:


Guests Analysis - DoctorJimmy133

First off, apologies for the long and rambling writeup no one will read. Mewtwo clearing his division was a sexy upset pick I made in order to maximize my chances of finishing on the global leaderboard or winning the Guru, and I felt like brainstorming this.

Let's start by looking back at Mewtwo's performance in 2013 (which, let's face it, is the only evidence suggesting Mewtwo can possibly win.) He looked okay against Phoenix Wright in R2 then looked like an upper-echelon Noble Niner in R3 and R4, murdering Sephiroth and Sonic in the process. In the fourth-place bonus match he seemed to deboost, looking weaker than Mega Man and stronger than Pikachu, though the true margins were of course obscured by LFF. There are some theories about what the hell happened in 2013 to turn Mewtwo from the mid midcarder he was into one of the strongest characters in the bracket. It was the year of PokFEAR, but this was ridiculous.

One theory is that he picked up a Charizard- or SMRPG-style bandwagon. This makes little sense because he smashed Sonic and Bowser before he even did anything else huge. I don't think beating Vincent could have triggered it, since casuals have tended to underestimate him.

Another idea suggests that /r/leagueoflegends liked Pokmon more than it liked Sonic, Mario or Final Fantasy VII, thus leading to backfire/spillover votes favoring Mewtwo. However, we had borderline perfectly controlled circumstances to test that theory. When Bacon opened the floodgates all over the poor Genetic Pokmon in the semifinals, he didn't boost relative to Sephiroth he actually lost percentage in comparison, at about the same rate he was losing it before the rally was reposted. So that doesn't explain the boost.

The third idea for why Mewtwo won is that the site as a whole decided to vote for Mewtwo as some sort of "chosen one" as having the best chance take down Draven. This theory is stupid because there's no vehicle with which someone could convey this message to GameFAQs as a whole, and no reason to assume the everyday voter will make this specific decision en masse to the point where a midcarder cleans up Sonic.

So what did cause Mewtwo's explosion?
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