LogFAQs > #912101139

Lopen's Analysis:

Oh boy. I thought I was going to be boring with Master Chief this year. After all, losing to Ryu Hayabusa in 2010 followed by losing to Yuna in 2013 in a format that should favor him didn't inspire me with confidence he could do anything crazy like challenge Luigi. But then, well, Tails put up a good number on Drake and suddenly everyone who picked Drake is like "damage control time" and suddenly Master Chief is a huge underdog even when the bar to clear is Tails so I guess it's an upset special now? Let's talk about a few things.

Chief is looking good coming off round 1. Best he's looked since 2008 I'd argue. Putting up 70%, even on a weak opponent, is good for him-- it implies he's not being as heavily anti-voted as he was when he was at his weakest times. Goro Majima probably isn't the worst level of fodder in the contest. Kiryu did okay on Bomberman who in turn did okay on Kefka. To me I think we're looking at 2004 Chief levels here at base, since he mashed the foddery (in 2004 anyway) Crash Bandicoot for similar numbers back then. 2010 you had him put up only 60% on Spy, which should've been a red flag immediately-- not that losing to Hayabusa is the worst thing ever or anything but I do think 2010 Chief was probably weaker than 2004 (and 2018) Chief. Now 2004 wasn't exactly a glorious year for him but he did come awfully close to beating Frog who was decent then. Chief is also old enough that he likely avoids the kind of falling off a cliff syndrome that many other more recent characters have had-- I'm not saying he's going to get a nostalgia boost but being old enough to get anything out of nostalgia whatsoever should be enough to stave off the fact that Halo hasn't been relevant in many years now.

Speaking about age, on the flip side we have Tails's round 1 opponent, Nathan Drake. Nathan Drake comes from a breed that has, frankly, looked like crap across the board this contest. "Normal human" in design? Check. From a series that became prominent in the last 10 years? Check. Keep in mind that Nathan Drake once was doubled by CATS. Obviously I'm not saying he is going to fall to those levels-- that was before even Uncharted 2, but just pointing out that he has a pretty good distance he can fall. Also note that Master Chief hasn't ever really looked to be substantially weaker than Tails in any year, even in his weak years. Chief's fall from grace has been overstated-- he can still murder guys who are at risk of failing the Pac-Man (circa 2005, maybe not the monster Pac-Man of today) test. Sonic team hasn't really looked amazing either. Knuckles looked alright, but not particularly boosted-- beating Zidane convincingly was likely Zidane's fault more than anything seeing many other FF characters in action. Metal Sonic lost to The Boss who was in turn utterly murdered by Zelda. Shadow lost to Ness who was humiliated by 2B. There isn't really a lot of reason to have faith in Tails or his round 1 opponent here.

It's time for one more dose of believe for old time's sake. GAME FUEL, son. Let's do it. Finish the fight.

Lopen's Prediction:
Master Chief with 54.07%

Crew Consensus: TAILS FUEL
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/