| Topic List | Page List: 1 |
|---|---|
| Topic | Politics Containment Topic 202: More Like Cesar Say-owned |
| Corrik 10/30/18 6:27:41 AM #245: | I don't think Nate Silvers House model is going to end up being super accurate. Most have the house at 205 safe for Dems.and 200 safe for Repubs. I know we are about a week out still but a lot of Repubs are holding slim leads in a lot of the majority of these toss ups. Granted Dems may take a slim majority but he has them on average gaining 40 seats. I don't think the polls really support that unless there are major unforeseen things which then how is he seeing this? 40 seats put them at 233 seats. That means they are winning their 205 considered safe seats and winning 28 of the 30 toss ups. Polls don't support this. Unless he is considering seats gained in a way I don't understand. That is just for the average gain. I believe the house is 193 236. 6 vacancies. This is why I think his model is very dependent on the generic ballot too much, and it doesn't make sense across the larger spectrum. --- LoL ID = imajericho XBL GT = Corrik ... Copied to Clipboard! |
| Topic List | Page List: 1 |