Democrats are unlikely to pursue major climate change legislation if they win the House majority, despite a growing body of evidence suggesting time is running out to address the issue.
This represents a shift in strategy from when House Democrats last controlled the chamber. In 2009, they passed cap-and-trade legislation, which subsequently died in the Democratic-controlled Senate. The game plan for next year, House Democrats say, is more incremental steps and hearings.
With President Trump in the White House and Republicans favored to keep the Senate next year, climate legislation would face stiff headwinds, and pushing it could spark backlash from the right both now and after the Nov. 6 midterm elections.
Considering those constraints, said Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), Democrats should focus on the practical and the opportunistic to make short-term progress while fighting for bolder measures the aspirational goals over the longer term.
Its going to be, I think, more of an opportunistic strategy, where, in various pieces of legislation, across the board, were going to insert measures that address climate change, said Connolly, a leader in the Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition.
The office of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), a fierce environmentalist who ushered the cap-and-trade bill through the lower chamber almost a decade ago, declined to comment about the Democrats future climate plans. Pelosi has been touring the country stumping for Democratic candidates, with a focus on economic and health-care issues.
Others anticipate a piecemeal approach to climate policy if the Democrats win the chamber.
I could imagine that we can do ancillary pieces that are very much reinforcing this issue and concern for climate change, said Rep. Paul Tonko (N.Y.), the top Democrat on the House Energy and Commerce Committees environment subcommittee.
Not all Democrats share that view. Faced with more data on a warming planet and the role of human activity in exacerbating the trend some lawmakers want the party to use its would-be majority to push a bold, sweeping package to hike the cost of carbon emissions.
Their urgency has been fueled by a new report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which forecasts impacts like massive coral reef die-offs, increased drought and sea-level rise by 2040 if emissions are not significantly cut by 2030. The reports authors said current climate policies and the 2015 Paris agreement which Trump promised to exit are not nearly enough to avoid disaster.
I do think we need to go big, said Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.). Im all for incrementalism in policy. We do lots and lots of it, and its a good way to move forward. But this situation is so serious that we cant do it in little steps.
Beyer acknowledged the political hurdles facing such a plan, not least Trumps rejection of consensus climate science. But he sees a path for working with moderate Republican senators and getting a climate change bill to the presidents desk. If it gets that far, he thinks Trump enticed by the opportunity to claim a victory might change his tune.
Politically, it wouldnt be smart for Democrats to give him a win, but were not talking about politics, were talking about the fate of the planet and the fate of humanity, Beyer said.
Rep. Ted Deutch (D-Fla.), a co-chairman of the bipartisan, 90-member Climate Solutions Caucus, rejected the notion that pricing-up carbon is beyond reach, even in the current political environment. Hes pushing for a bipartisan carbon-fee bill that, if passed by the House, would then put pressure on Trump and Senate Republicans to act. continued...